This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.

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Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 18. Landslides are a constant in shaping our landscape. Whether by large episodic, or smaller chronic, mass movements, our mountains, hills, valleys, rivers, and streams bear evidence of change from landslides. Combined with anthropogenic factors, especially the development and settlement of unstable terrain, landslides (as natural processes) have become natural disasters. This book charts our understanding of landslide processes, prediction methods, and related land use issues. How and where do landslides initiate? What are the human and economic consequences? What hazard assessment and prediction methods are available, and how well do they work? How does land use, from timber harvesting and road building to urban and industrial development, affect landslide distribution in time and space? And what is the effect of land use and climate change on landslides? [Book Synopsis]

Landslides: Processes, Prediction, and Land Use

Debris flows typically occur when intense rainfall or snowmelt triggers landslides or extensive erosion on steep, debris-mantled slopes. The flows can then grow dramatically in size and speed as they entrain material from their beds and banks, but the mechanism of this growth is unclear. Indeed, momentum conservation implies that entrainment of static material should retard the motion of the flows if friction remains unchanged. Here we use data from large-scale experiments to assess the entrainment of bed material by debris flows. We find that entrainment is accompanied by increased flow momentum and speed only if large positive pore pressures develop in wet bed sediments as the sediments are overridden by debris flows. The increased pore pressure facilitates progressive scour of the bed, reduces basal friction and instigates positive feedback that causes flow speed, mass and momentum to increase. If dryer bed sediment is entrained, however, the feedback becomes negative and flow momentum declines. We infer that analogous feedbacks could operate in other types of gravity-driven mass flow that interact with erodible beds. The mechanisms by which debris flows acquire mass and momentum as they entrain material are unclear. Large-scale experiments suggest that the pore pressure of wet bed sediment increases as the flow moves over the bed, leading to reduced friction and progressive scouring of the base.

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

Spaceborne differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) has already proven its potential for mapping ground deformation phenomena, e.g. volcano dynamics. However, atmospheric disturbances as well as phase decorrelation have prevented hitherto this technique from achieving full operational capability. These drawbacks are overcome by carrying out measurements on a subset of image pixels corresponding to pointwise stable reflectors (Permanent Scatterers, PS) and exploiting long temporal series of interferometric data. Results obtained by processing 55 images acquired by the European Space Agency (ESA) ERS SAR sensors over Southern California show that the PS approach pushes measurement accuracy very close to its theoretical limit (about 1 mm), allowing the description of millimetric deformation phenomena occurring in a complex fault system. A comparison with corresponding displacement time series relative to permanent GPS stations of the Southern California Integrated GPS network (SCIGN) is carried out. Moreover, the pixel-by-pixel character of the PS analysis allows the exploitation of individual phase stable radar targets in low-coherence areas. This makes spaceborne interferometric measurements possible in vegetated areas, as long as a sufficient spatial density of individual isolated man-made structures or exposed rocks is available. The evolution of the Ancona landslide (central Italy) was analysed by processing 61 ERS images acquired in the time span between June 1992 and December 2000. The results have been compared with deformation values detected during optical levelling campaigns ordered by the Municipality of Ancona. The characteristics of PS, GPS and optical levelling surveying are to some extent complementary: a synergistic use of the three techniques could strongly enhance quality and reliability of ground deformation monitoring. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring Landslides and Tectonic Motions with the Permanent Scatterers Technique

[1] Aggregation of data collected in 28 controlled experiments reveals reproducible debris-flow behavior that provides a clear target for model tests. In each experiment ∼10 m3 of unsorted, water-saturated sediment composed mostly of sand and gravel discharged from behind a gate, descended a steep, 95-m flume, and formed a deposit on a nearly horizontal runout surface. Experiment subsets were distinguished by differing basal boundary conditions (1 versus 16 mm roughness heights) and sediment mud contents (1 versus 7 percent dry weight). Sensor measurements of evolving flow thicknesses, basal normal stresses, and basal pore fluid pressures demonstrate that debris flows in all subsets developed dilated, coarse-grained, high-friction snouts, followed by bodies of nearly liquefied, finer-grained debris. Mud enhanced flow mobility by maintaining high pore pressures in flow bodies, and bed roughness reduced flow speeds but not distances of flow runout. Roughness had these effects because it promoted debris agitation and grain-size segregation, and thereby aided growth of lateral levees that channelized flow. Grain-size segregation also contributed to development of ubiquitous roll waves, which had diverse amplitudes exhibiting fractal number-size distributions. Despite the influence of these waves and other sources of dispersion, the aggregated data have well-defined patterns that help constrain individual terms in a depth-averaged debris-flow model. The patterns imply that local flow resistance evolved together with global flow dynamics, contradicting the hypothesis that any consistent rheology applied. We infer that new evolution equations, not new rheologies, are needed to explain how characteristic debris-flow behavior emerges from the interactions of debris constituents.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2009JF001514

The perfect debris flow? Aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments

A total of 87 direct shear tests in a large direct shear-box apparatus have been used to investigate the strength and dilatancy of sand–gravel mixtures. This paper focuses on the differences in behaviour between a silica sand (yellow Leighton Buzzard sand) and sand–gravel mixtures obtained by adding fractions of two kinds of gravel to the sand. The purpose is to find a relation between the grain-size characteristics of the materials and the shearing resistance. Experimental results are analysed in terms of the frictional and dilatant contributions to the strength of mixtures as a function of their relative density, and are compared with dilatancy theories and empirical equations. The addition of gravel to the mixtures, even at low fractions (less than 0.1 by volume), causes an increase in peak friction angle (Φ ′peak) which results both from higher dilatancy at failure (ψ
 max) and higher constant volume friction angle (Φ ′cv). Use of the minimum voids ratio (e
 min) of the materials allows the data for the two families of mixtures to be normalized and interpreted in terms of Φ ′cv and the ratio (Φ ′peak  −  Φ ′cv)/ψ
 max. The relationships between relative density (D
 r
 ), ψ
 max and Φ ′peak  −  Φ ′cv are only partly explained on a physical basis, so we develop empirical equations to predict the peak shear resistance of sand–gravel mixtures (up to gravel contents of 0.5) on the basis of easily measurable quantities. Such equations constitute a practical tool to overcome the problems arising from the impracticality of testing coarse material in the standard shear-box apparatus.

The Direct Shear Strength and Dilatancy of Sand-gravel Mixtures

[1] Various methods have been proposed in the literature to predict the rainfall conditions that are likely to trigger landslides in a given area. Most of these methods, however, only consider the rainfall events that resulted in landslides and provide deterministic thresholds with a single possible output (landslide or no-landslide) for a given input (rainfall conditions). Such a deterministic view is not always suited to landslides. Slope stability, in fact, is not ruled by rainfall alone and failure conditions are commonly achieved with a combination of numerous relevant factors. When different outputs (landslide or no-landslide) can be obtained for the same input a probabilistic approach is preferable. In this work we propose a new method for evaluating rainfall thresholds based on Bayesian probability. The method is simple, statistically rigorous, and returns a value of landslide probability (from 0 to 1) for each combination of the selected rainfall variables. The proposed approach was applied to the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy taking advantage of the historical landslide archive, which includes more than 4000 events for which the date of occurrence is known with daily accuracy. The results show that landsliding in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (duration, intensity, total rainfall) while antecedent rainfall seems to be less important. The distribution of landslide probability in the rainfall duration-intensity shows an abrupt increase at certain duration-intensity values which indicates a radical change of state of the system and suggests the existence of a real physical threshold.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2012JF002367

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

Field observations of a debris flow event in the Dolomites

Landslide is one of the repeated geological hazards during rainy season, which causes fatalities, damage to property and economic losses in Korea. Landslides are responsible for at least 17% of all fatalities from natural hazards worldwide, and nearly 25% of annual casualties caused by natural hazards in Korea. Due to global climate change, the frequency of landslide occurrence has been increased and subsequently, the losses and damages associated with landslides also have been increased. Therefore, accurate prediction of landslide occurrence, and monitoring and early warning for ground movements are very important tasks to reduce the damages and losses caused by landslides. Various studies on landslide prediction and reduction in landslide damage have been performed and consequently, much of the recent progress has been in these areas. In particular, the application of information and geospatial technologies such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) has greatly contributed to landslide hazard assessment studies over recent years. In this paper, the recent advances and the state-of-the-art in the essential components of the landslide hazard assessment, such as landslide susceptibility analysis, runout modeling, landslide monitoring and early warning, were reviewed. Especially, this paper focused on the evaluation of the landslide susceptibility using probabilistic approach and physically based method, runout evaluation using volume based model and dynamic model, in situ ground based monitoring techniques, remote sensing techniques for landslide monitoring, and landslide early warning using rainfall and physical thresholds.

Alessandro Simoni

Papers

The Direct Shear Strength and Dilatancy of Sand-gravel Mixtures

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

Field observations of a debris flow event in the Dolomites

Landslide prediction, monitoring and early warning: a concise review of state-of-the-art

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach