Allan H. Murphy

TL;DR: In this article, a new vector partition of the probability, or Brier, score (PS) is formulated and the nature and properties of this partition are described, as well as the relationships between the terms in this partition and terms in the original vector partition.

TL;DR: In this article, several skill scores are defined, based on the mean-square-error measure of accuracy and alternative climatological standards of reference, each of which is shown to possess terms involving 1) the coefficient of correlation between the forecasts and observations, 2) a measure of the nonsystematic (i.e., conditional) bias in the forecast, and 3) the systematic bias in forecasts.

TL;DR: Three distinct types of goodness are identified in this paper: the correspondence between forecasters’ judgments and their forecasts, the correspondencebetween the forecasts and the matching observations, and the incremental economic and/or other benefits realized by decision makers through the use of the forecasts (type 3 goodness, or value).

TL;DR: In this paper, a general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described, and two factorizations of the joint distributions are investigated: 1) the calibration-refinement factorization, which involves the conditional distributions of observations given forecasts and the marginal distributions of forecasts, and 2) the likelihood-base factorization.

TL;DR: In this paper, a general approach for modeling wind speed and wind power is described, which is based on the development of a model of wind speed, and values of wind power are estimated by applying the appropriate transformations to values of speed.