. This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900–2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years. The extreme droughts of 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1991–1992 were continental in nature and stand unique in the available records. Additionally, many severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the recent past such as the 1999–2002 drought in northwest Africa, 1970s and 1980s droughts in western Africa (Sahel), 2010–2011 drought in eastern Africa (Horn of Africa) and 2001–2003 drought in southern and southeastern Africa, to name a few. The available (though limited) evidence before the 20th century confirms the occurrence of several extreme and multi-year droughts during each century, with the most prolonged and intense droughts that occurred in Sahel and equatorial eastern Africa. The complex and highly variant nature of many physical mechanisms such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) and land–atmosphere feedback adds to the daunting challenge of drought monitoring and forecasting. The future predictions of droughts based on global climate models indicate increased droughts and aridity at the continental scale but large differences exist due to model limitations and complexity of the processes especially for Sahel and northern Africa. However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African continent is likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. This evident challenge is likely to aggravate due to slow progress in drought risk management, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated efforts in drought mitigation to reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in the future.

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A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

Drought characterization from a multivariate perspective: A review

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2016RG000549

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Droughts are a normal part of the climate, and they can occur in any climate regime around the world, even deserts and rainforests. Like other hazards, droughts can be characterized in terms of their severity, location, duration, and timing. Droughts can arise from a range of hydrometeorological processes that suppress precipitation and/or limit surface water or groundwater availability, creating conditions that are significantly drier than normal or otherwise limiting moisture availability to a potentially damaging extent. Drought risk management involves hazards, exposure, vulnerability and impact assessment, a drought early warning system (DEWS), and preparedness and mitigation. DEWS typically aim to track, assess, and deliver relevant information concerning climatic, hydrologic, and water supply conditions and trends. This chapter discusses some of the most commonly used drought indicators/indices that are being applied across drought-prone regions, with the goal of advancing monitoring, early warning, and information delivery systems in support of risk-based drought management policies and preparedness plans.

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Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices

The ability of tree species to cope with anticipated decrease in water availability is still poorly understood. We evaluated the potential of Norway spruce, Scots pine, European larch, black pine, and Douglas-fir to withstand drought in a drier future climate by analyzing their past growth and physiological responses at a xeric and a mesic site in Central Europe using dendroecological methods. Earlywood, latewood, and total ring width, as well as the d13C and d18O in early- and latewood were measured and statistically related to a multiscalar soil water deficit index from 1961 to 2009. At the xeric site, d13C values of all species were strongly linked to water deficits that lasted longer than 11 months, indicating a long-term cumulative effect on the carbon pool. Trees at the xeric site were particularly sensitive to soil water recharge in the preceding autumn and early spring. The native species European larch and Norway spruce, growing close to their dry distribution limit at the xeric site, were found to be the most vulnerable species to soil water deficits. At the mesic site, summer water availability was critical for all species, whereas water availability prior to the growing season was less important. Trees at the mesic were more vulnerable to water deficits of shorter duration than the xeric site. We conclude that if summers become drier, trees growing on mesic sites will undergo significant growth reductions, whereas at their dry distribution limit in the Alps, tree growth of the highly sensitive spruce and larch may collapse, likely inducing dieback and compromising the provision of ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these changes will be mediated strongly by soil water recharge in winter and thus water availability at the beginning of the growing season.

Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch

Drought is a stochastic natural hazard that is instigated by intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Following an initial meteorological phenomenon, subsequent impacts are realized on agr...

A review of drought indices

Loss of water due to leakage is a common phenomenon observed in all water distribution systems. However, the water loss can be reduced to an acceptable limit by improved understanding of leakage mechanisms and pathways, and the influencing factors that lead to leakage. This study proposes a methodology to estimate leakage potential (LP) in a water distribution system (WDS). The study has identified various factors which are directly and/or indirectly associated with LP in a WDS. The research has defined a selected set of influencing factors as fuzzy variables and has developed a fuzzy rule-based (FRB) model using Mamdani inferencing algorithm. The impact of influencing factors varies under different operating pressure, therefore a generalized methodology has been proposed. The proposed methodology has been implemented for a real WDS in Bangkok (Thailand). To evaluate the impacts of uncertainties of influencing factors on LP, Monte Carlo simulation-based sensitivity analysis has been carried out. It has been concluded that the operating system pressure and age of the network are the two most important factors that contribute to LP of a WDS. The proposed model will help water utility managers to prioritize their network rehabilitation strategies and to establishing an efficient active leakage control program.

Bahman Naser

Papers

A review of drought indices

Evaluating leakage potential in water distribution systems: a fuzzy-based methodology