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Using Multivariate Statistics

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

Examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rainfed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. To that end, trend analysis has been employed to inspect the change of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia using gridded monthly precipitation data obtained from Global Precipitation and Climate Centre (GPCC V7) and temperature data from Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 3.23) with 0.5° by 0.5° resolution from 1901 to 2014. Data have been analyzed using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and Palmer drought severity index. Furthermore, Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the time series trend. The result revealed intra- and inter-annual variability of rainfall while Palmer drought severity index value proved the increasing trend of the number of drought years. Annual, belg and kiremt rainfall have decreased with a rate of 15.03, 1.93 and 13.12 mm per decade respectively. The declining trend for annual and kiremt rainfall was found to be statistically significant while that of belg was not significant. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.046, 0.067 and 0.026  °C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis test result revealed increasing trend for mean and minimum average temperatures through time significantly while the trend for maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant increasing trend. We recommend strategies designed in the agricultural sector have to take the declining and erratic nature of rainfall and increasing trend of temperature into consideration.

Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin

Climate finance in

This study is aimed at analyzing farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change in the Dabus watershed. It is based on analysis of data collected from 734 randomly selected farm household heads substantiated with Focus Group Discussions and field observations. The study employed descriptive methods to assess farmers’ perception of climate change, local indicators of climate change and types of adaptation measures exercised to cope up with the risk of the change in climate. The study also employed the Heckman sample selection model to analyze the two-step process of adaptation to climate change which initially requires farmers’ perception that climate is changing prior to responding to the changes through adaptation measures. Based on the model result educational attainment, the age of the head of the household, the number of crop failures in the past, changes in temperature and precipitation significantly influenced farmers’ perception of climate change in wet lowland parts of the study area. In dry lowland condition, farming experience, climate information, duration of food shortage, and the number of crop failures experienced determined farmers’ perception of climate change. Farmers’ adaptation decision in both the wet and dry lowland conditions is influenced by household size, the gender of household head, cultivated land size, education, farm experience, non-farm income, income from livestock, climate information, extension advice, farm-home distance and number of parcels. However, the direction of influence and significance level of most of the explanatory variables vary between the two parts of the study area. In line with the results, any intervention that promotes the use of adaptation measures to climate change may account for location-specific factors that determine farmers' perception of climate change and adaptive responses thereof.

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Farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Dabus watershed, North-West Ethiopia

In topographically diverse highland terrain, socio-economic and environmental conditions can vary dramatically over relatively short distances. This presents a challenge for climate resilient development strategies, as exposure to climate variability and change, climate impacts, and adaptive capacity differ between communities located within common cultural and administrative units. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) offers a tool to assess climate vulnerability through direct household surveys. This makes it particularly appropriate for analyses at sub-community and community scales. Here we apply the LVI-IPCC to communities of Choke Mountain, located in the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists in this mountainous environment, we implement LVI-IPCC analysis for 793 mixed crop-livestock farming households using the five distinct agroecological systems (AES) that compose the populated area of Choke Mountain as a framework for analysis. For each AES, an LVI index, adaptive capacity metric, and LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. We found that each of these metrics varied systematically across AES. High elevation sloping lands and low elevation steep lands exhibited relatively low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability while midland AES had higher capacity and lower vulnerability. These results suggest that resilience building interventions for Choke Mountain ecosystems should be targeted to address the specific circumstances of each AES. The approach of applying LVI-IPCC at AES scale could be applicable to other climate vulnerable mountainous regions.

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Agroecosystem specific climate vulnerability analysis: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to a tropical highland region

Biogas technology has uneven dissemination over the globe. The technology is at its infant stage of development and dissemination in many developing countries while China has the largest implementation record. The principal factors controlling its dissemination include: policies and institutions, financial constraint, subsidies, availability of inputs, awareness about the technology, consumers’ considerations, and success stories about the technology. However, biogas technology is a multipurpose technology which assists in addressing economic, health, social and environmental problems simultaneously. Thus, development and dissemination of the technology certainly minimize energy poverty and improve peoples’ status in the energy ladder. In line with this, Ethiopia has completed implementing the first phase (2009–2013) of its National Biogas Programme and has started implementing its second phase. During the first phase, it was able to disseminate 57.6% the total 14,000 domestic biogas plants planned for the period. Though the technology was introduced about five decades ago into the country, biogas installations constructed prior to the establishment of the National Biogas Programme were having varied digester models, lacked standards and central coordination and their entire number was not more than 1000. This paper reviews the status of dissemination of household biogas technology, factors influencing the dissemination of the technology, benefits of the technology at global scales, energy resources, consumption patterns and brief account of the technology at national scale-Ethiopia.

Belay Simane

Papers

Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin

Climate finance in

Farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in the Dabus watershed, North-West Ethiopia

Agroecosystem specific climate vulnerability analysis: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to a tropical highland region

A review on biogas technology and its contributions to sustainable rural livelihood in Ethiopia