Mind, Self and Society from the Standpoint of a Social Behaviorist

The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascades—herein called global cascades—that occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

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A simple model of global cascades on random networks

People have a tendency to marry within their social group or to marry a person who is close to them in status Although many characteristics play a role in the choice of a spouse, sociologists have most often examined endogamy and homogamy with respect to race/ethnicity, religion, and socioeconomic status I first give an overview of hypotheses on the causes of endogamy and homogamy The various hypotheses that have been suggested in the literature can be distinguished as arguments about three more general factors: (a) the preferences of marriage candidates for certain characteristics in a spouse, (b) the interference of “third parties” in the selection process, and (c) the constraints of the marriage market in which candidates are searching for a spouse Second, I summarize empirical research by answering four questions: (a) To what extent are groups endogamous and how do groups differ in this respect? (b) How has endogamy changed over time? (c) Which factors are related to endogamy? (d) How do various d

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Intermarriage and Homogamy: Causes, Patterns, Trends

Facing the Unexpected presents the wealth of information derived from disasters around the world over the past 25 years. The authors explore how these findings can improve disaster programs, identify remaining research needs, and discuss disaster within the broader context of sustainable development. How do different people think about disaster? Are we more likely to panic or to respond with altruism? Why are 110 people killed in a Valujet crash considered disaster victims while the 50,000 killed annually in traffic accidents in the U.S. are not? At the crossroads of social, cultural, and economic factors, this book examines these and other compelling questions. The authors review the influences that shape the U.S. governmental system for disaster planning and response, the effectiveness of local emergency agencies, and the level of professionalism in the field. They also compare technological versus natural disaster and examine the impact of technology on disaster programs.

Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States

This analysis of fertility transition is conducted among 69 developing countries during 1960-90 It is argued that the relationship between socioeconomic development and the timing and pace of fertility decline is related to level of development regional progress in fertility decline and social interaction The empirical test is based on the theoretical framework of Notestein and successors Analysis is based on the UN human development index (HDI) during 1960-85 (life expectancy GDP and literacy) Findings indicate that there is a highly significant negative and nonlinear relationship between HDI and fertility Fertility was highest among countries with low HDI scores When HDI was over 07 all countries were in transition but there was no fixed threshold for entry into transition Fertility varied widely among countries at any given level of development Statistically significant findings and graphic presentation indicate that countries with levels of development over 03 in 1960-65 had higher fertility than countries with an HDI of 03 in 1985-90 The relationship between fertility and development shifted over time Transition occurred first in the most industrialized literate and urban provinces of a macroregion and then other provinces in geographic proximity followed regardless of HDI level Logistic models indicate that development level and years since the beginning of transition in the region were good predictors of transition status in Asia Latin America and Europe The most rapid declines in fertility occurred in countries that had high levels of development at the onset of transition How family planning affects the pace and timing of fertility decline cannot be determined It is posited that the addition of social interaction (ideas evaluation of the merits of ideas social influence and local national and global channels of social interaction) measures to the empirical model would further explain the timing and pace of fertility transition

http://gsdl.ewubd.edu/greenstone/collect/admin-mprhgdco/index/assoc/HASH29f5.dir/P0018.pdf

Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions.

The paper presents a critical review of selected simulation models including (1) flow based, (2) cellular automata, (3) agent-based, and (4) activity-based models, as well as of three simulation models that incorporate social scientific processes--FIRESCAP, EXODUS, and the Multi-Agent Simulation for Crisis Management. It concludes by pointing out the so far ignored insights that could be derived from the fields of social psychology and social organization. A number of predictions regarding the effects of social organizational variables on the timing and movement of evacuating groups are presented. 

Proceeding of Conference “Building Occupant Movement During Fire Emergencies,” June 10-11, 2004. Gaithersburg, Maryland: National Institute of Standards and Technology, (forthcoming).

A Critical Review Of Emergency Evacuation Simulation Models

In this article, the authors comment on the incident command system (ICS) as a management tool for structuring the activity of disaster response agencies at the site of disasters in the United States. The authors drawn their analysis from the use of ICS in nine different disasters in which the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) task forces participated. The authors focus on the importance of context as a largely un-examined precondition to effective ICS. In other words, the system is more or less effective depending on specific characteristics of the incident and the organizations in which it is used. ICS works best when those using it are part of a community, when the demands being responded to are routine to them, and when the sense of emergency on a social and cultural level is at a minimum, i.e., prior to panic situations. The authors conclude that the current efforts in the National Incident Management System (NIMS) to use ICS as a comprehensive principle of disaster management probably will not succeed as intended.

A Critical Evaluation of the Incident Command System and NIMS

Objective: The paper uses the timing of evacuation behavior of occupants of the World Trade Center at the time of the explosion of February 26, 1993, to test predictions from Emergent Norm Theory. Method: It uses ordinary least square multiple regression analysis to examine data from a survey done in the first week in May 1993 of 415 people who worked at the World Trade Center. Results: The theory's predictions regarding the additive effects of size of group and preexisting social relationships on the timing of evacuation are supported. However, the findings document important and unexpected interaction effects of these two variables on the effects of perceived threat, resources, and cooperativeness on the timing of evacuation. Conclusion: The results augment the theory by showing the continued importance of enduring social relationships as determinants of collective behavior. Enduring social relationships are not only useful to differentiate collective behavior from institutionalized behavior but also specify the dynamics attending the occurrence of collective behavior.

A Test of the Emergent Norm Theory of Collective Behavior

This study represents our efforts to synthesize two intermarriage perspectives--one explaining intermarriage at the micro level using individual attributes the other explaining it at the macro level using aggregated community characteristics. The 5% Public Use Microdata Samples from the 1980 U.S. Census were used to link individual and community data. The empirical assessment of the linked model showed great promise indicating that the explanatory power of our model was significantly improved when one set of factors was supplemented by the other. Our findings supported the cultural assimilation hypothesis but contradicted the structural assimilation arguments. Contextual factors such as group size and sex ratio also exerted strong structural constraints on marital choices. (EXCERPT)

Structural and assimilationist explanations of Asian American intermarriage.

Social factors are one of the most important causes of vulnerability of exposed communities to disasters. Until now, however, most studies have been done in the developed countries. Thus, the aim of this paper is to review the social vulnerability indices and their validity in disasters within the period 1985–2015 and to develop a suitable classification to make sense of social vulnerability indices in the Iranian context. This study took place in 2015. It used bibliographies, citation databases, and other available records to find an answer to the question of what are the valid social vulnerability indicators in disasters. It examined 43 peer-reviewed English and Persian language journals. Initially, it found 32 indicators and 150 variables, but it was possible to subsume them into a few valid social vulnerability indicators. These were gender, public health condition, public infrastructures and migration. They are the five top categories of social vulnerability that are most useful in the Iranian context. Most studies have been limited to measure social vulnerability index in natural disasters settings. Consequently, additional research is needed to develop the indices of social vulnerability in man-made disasters and to develop appropriate variable weighting schemes and valid indices.

Benigno E. Aguirre

Papers

A Critical Review Of Emergency Evacuation Simulation Models

A Critical Evaluation of the Incident Command System and NIMS

A Test of the Emergent Norm Theory of Collective Behavior

Structural and assimilationist explanations of Asian American intermarriage.

Social vulnerability indicators in disasters: Findings from a systematic review