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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides access to information on a variety of topics related to the environment and strives to inform citizens of health risks. The EPA also has an extensive library network that consists of 26 libraries throughout the United States, which provide access to a plethora of information to EPA employees, scientists, and researchers. The EPA implemented a reorganization project to digitize their materials so they would be more accessible to a wider range of users, but this plan was drastically accelerated when the EPA was threatened with a budget cut. It chose to close and reduce the hours and services of some of their libraries. As a result, the agency was accused of denying users the “right to know” by making information unavailable, not providing an adequate strategic plan, and discarding vital materials. This case study explores the background of the digitization project, the practices implemented, and the critiques of the project.

/pdf/the-environmental-protection-agency-3gx4opzrjm.pdf

The Environmental Protection Agency

Historically, most demographic data for states and substate areas were collected from the long version of the decennial census questionnaire. A “snapshot” of the characteristics of the population on the April 1 census date was available once every 10 years. The long form of the decennial census has been replaced by the American Community Survey (ACS) that has been conducted on an ongoing basis for the entire country since 2005. Instead of a snapshot in which all of the data are gathered at one time, the ACS aggregates data collected over time, making the results more difficult to interpret. However, the ACS data are updated annually.

A practical guide to the American Community Survey (3-year estimates)

An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

Large blackouts are typically caused by cascading failure propagating through a power system by means of a variety of processes. Because of the wide range of time scales, multiple interacting processes, and the huge number of possible interactions, the simulation and analysis of cascading blackouts is extremely complicated. This paper defines cascading failure for blackouts and gives an initial review of the current understanding, industrial tools, and the challenges and emerging methods of analysis and simulation.

Initial review of methods for cascading failure analysis in electric power transmission systems IEEE PES CAMS task force on understanding, prediction, mitigation and restoration of cascading failures

Understanding cascading effects among interdependent infrastructure systems can have an important effect on public policies that aim to address vulnerabilities in critical infrastructures, especially those policies pertaining to infrastructure security. Efforts to quantify these cascading effects and illustrative examples of such metrics are presented. The first set of examples is based upon various impacts that the 14th August, 2003 blackout in the USA had on other sectors. A second set of examples is based on various electric power outages and their impact on other infrastructure systems collected from the authors' research. Although efforts to quantify cascading effects are challenging, given the nature of the data and its limited availability, research in this area can provide useful metrics.

The next step: quantifying infrastructure interdependencies to improve security

Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure

Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into risk management policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990‐2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages.

http://people.stern.nyu.edu/jsimonof/riskanal07.pdf

Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power

This paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution of failures in three critical infrastructure systems in the United States: the electrical power grid, hazardous liquids (including oil) pipelines, and natural gas pipelines. The analyses are carried out at the state level, though the analytical frameworks are applicable to other geographic areas and infrastructure types. The paper also discusses how understanding the spatial distribution of these failures can be used as an input into risk management policies to improve the performance of these systems, as well as for security and natural hazards mitigation.

/pdf/analysis-of-electrical-power-and-oil-and-gas-pipeline-19307azsc9.pdf

Analysis of electrical power and oil and gas pipeline failures

A critical aspect of risk management in energy systems is minimizing pipeline incidents that can potentially affect life, property and economic well-being. Risk measures and scenarios are developed in this paper in order to better understand how consequences of pipeline failures are linked to causes and other incident characteristics. An important risk measure for decision-makers in this field is the association between incident cause and cost consequences. Data from the Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) on natural gas transmission and distribution pipeline incidents are used to analyze the association between various characteristics of the incidents and product loss cost and property damage cost. The data for natural gas transmission incidents are for the period 2002 through May 2009 and include 959 incidents. In the case of natural gas distribution incidents the data include 823 incidents that took place during the period 2004 through May 2009. A two-step approach is used in the statistical analyses to model the consequences and the costs associated with pipeline incidents. In the first step the probability that there is a nonzero consequence associated with an incident is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the incident. In the second step the magnitudes of the consequence measures, given that there is a nonzero outcome, are evaluated as a function of the characteristics of the incidents. It is found that the important characteristics of an incident for risk management can be quite different depending on whether the incident involves a transmission or distribution pipeline, and the type of cost consequence being modeled. The application of this methodology could allow decision-makers in the energy industry to construct scenarios to gain a better understanding of how cost consequence measures vary depending on factors such as incident cause and incident type.

Carlos E. Restrepo

Papers

The next step: quantifying infrastructure interdependencies to improve security

Causes, cost consequences, and risk implications of accidents in US hazardous liquid pipeline infrastructure

Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power

Analysis of electrical power and oil and gas pipeline failures

Risk management of cost consequences in natural gas transmission and distribution infrastructures