David Welch

TL;DR: This paper discusses and applies an ABC method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to estimate parameters of dynamical models and develops ABC SMC as a tool for model selection; given a range of different mathematical descriptions, it is able to choose the best model using the standard Bayesian model selection apparatus.

TL;DR: This analysis identifies 64 endangered species in particular need of new or stricter protections and 514 species in need of improvements to fisheries management, and designate priority countries for such actions, recognizing the widely differing fishing pressures and conservation capacity.

TL;DR: A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed and implemented to infer sampled ancestor trees, that is, trees in which sampled individuals can be direct ancestors of other sampled individuals, and applies its phylogenetic inference accounting for sampled ancestors to epidemiological data.

TL;DR: The FBD model and a model of morphological trait evolution are incorporated into a Bayesian total‐evidence approach to dating species phylogenies and it is shown that including stem‐fossil diversity can greatly improve the estimates of the divergence times of crown taxa.

TL;DR: It is suggested that sleep restriction in childhood increases the long-term risk for obesity, and ensuring that children get adequate sleep may be a useful strategy for stemming the current obesity epidemic.