Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany) Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Dickinson (USA), Didier Hauglustaine (France), Christoph Heinze (Norway, Germany), Elisabeth Holland (USA), Daniel Jacob (USA, France), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Srikanthan Ramachandran (India), Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (Brazil), Steven C. Wofsy (USA), Xiaoye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: D. Archer (USA), V. Arora (Canada), J. Austin (USA), D. Baker (USA), J.A. Berry (USA), R. Betts (UK), G. Bonan (USA), P. Bousquet (France), J. Canadell (Australia), J. Christian (Canada), D.A. Clark (USA), M. Dameris (Germany), F. Dentener (EU), D. Easterling (USA), V. Eyring (Germany), J. Feichter (Germany), P. Friedlingstein (France, Belgium), I. Fung (USA), S. Fuzzi (Italy), S. Gong (Canada), N. Gruber (USA, Switzerland), A. Guenther (USA), K. Gurney (USA), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), J. House (UK), A. Jones (UK), C. Jones (UK), B. Karcher (Germany), M. Kawamiya (Japan), K. Lassey (New Zealand), C. Le Quere (UK, France, Canada), C. Leck (Sweden), J. Lee-Taylor (USA, UK), Y. Malhi (UK), K. Masarie (USA), G. McFiggans (UK), S. Menon (USA), J.B. Miller (USA), P. Peylin (France), A. Pitman (Australia), J. Quaas (Germany), M. Raupach (Australia), P. Rayner (France), G. Rehder (Germany), U. Riebesell (Germany), C. Rodenbeck (Germany), L. Rotstayn (Australia), N. Roulet (Canada), C. Sabine (USA), M.G. Schultz (Germany), M. Schulz (France, Germany), S.E. Schwartz (USA), W. Steffen (Australia), D. Stevenson (UK), Y. Tian (USA, China), K.E. Trenberth (USA), T. Van Noije (Netherlands), O. Wild (Japan, UK), T. Zhang (USA, China), L. Zhou (USA, China) Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Martin Heimann (Germany, Switzerland), Mario Molina (USA, Mexico) This chapter should be cited as: Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

. The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spurious FRP observations of volcanoes, gas flares and other industrial activity. The combustion rate is subsequently calculated with land cover-specific conversion factors. Emission factors for 40 gas-phase and aerosol trace species have been compiled from a literature survey. The corresponding daily emissions have been calculated on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid from 2003 to the present. General consistency with the Global Fire Emission Database version 3.1 (GFED3.1) within its accuracy is achieved while maintaining the advantages of an FRP-based approach: GFASv1.0 makes use of the quantitative information on the combustion rate that is contained in the FRP observations, and it detects fires in real time at high spatial and temporal resolution. GFASv1.0 indicates omission errors in GFED3.1 due to undetected small fires. It also exhibits slightly longer fire seasons in South America and North Africa and a slightly shorter fire season in Southeast Asia. GFASv1.0 has already been used for atmospheric reactive gas simulations in an independent study, which found good agreement with atmospheric observations. We have performed simulations of the atmospheric aerosol distribution with and without the assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD). They indicate that the emissions of particulate matter need to be boosted by a factor of 2–4 to reproduce the global distribution of organic matter and black carbon. This discrepancy is also evident in the comparison of previously published top-down and bottom-up estimates. For the time being, a global enhancement of the particulate matter emissions by 3.4 is recommended. Validation with independent AOD and PM10 observations recorded during the Russian fires in summer 2010 show that the global Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Change (MACC) aerosol model with GFASv1.0 aerosol emissions captures the smoke plume evolution well when organic matter and black carbon are enhanced by the recommended factor. In conjunction with the assimilation of MODIS AOD, the use of GFASv1.0 with enhanced emission factors quantitatively improves the forecast of the aerosol load near the surface sufficiently to allow air quality warnings with a lead time of up to four days.

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Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge.

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Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems

Fil: Marengo, J. A.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil

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Recent developments on the South American monsoon system

The atmospheric transport of biomass burning emissions in the South American and African continents is being monitored annually using a numerical simulation of air mass motions; we use a tracer transport capability developed within RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) coupled to an emission model. Mass conservation equations are solved for carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate material (PM2.5). Source emissions of trace gases and particles associated with biomass burning activities in tropical forest, savanna and pasture have been parameterized and introduced into the model. The sources are distributed spatially and temporally and assimilated daily using the biomass burning locations detected by remote sensing. Advection effects (at grid scale) and turbulent transport (at sub-grid scale) are provided by the RAMS parameterizations. A sub-grid transport parameterization associated with moist deep and shallow convection, not explicitly resolved by the model due to its low spatial resolution, has also been introduced. Sinks associated with the process of wet and dry removal of aerosol particles and chemical transformation of gases are parameterized and introduced in the mass conservation equation. An operational system has been implemented which produces daily 48-h numerical simulations (including 24-h forecasts) of CO and PM2.5, in addition to traditional meteorological fields. The good prediction skills of the model are demonstrated by comparisons with time series of PM2.5 measured at the surface.

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Fernando S. Recuero

Papers

Monitoring the transport of biomass burning emissions in South America