https://cup.edu.cn/peakoil/docs/20140408160524637170.pdf

Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review

Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001

Transport and climate change: a review

'Complacent Car Addicts' or 'Aspiring Environmentalists'? Identifying travel behaviour segments using attitude theory

Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review

Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review

The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and cross-section data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the worldOs population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the worldOs vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, ChinaOs vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.

/pdf/vehicle-ownership-and-income-growth-worldwide-1960-2030-r1tf6wd7yn.pdf

Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

This paper makes projections of the growth in the car and total vehicle stock to the year 2015, for OECD countries and a number of developing economies, including China, India, and Pakistan. The projections are based on an econometrically estimated model that explains the growth of the car/population ratio (`car ownership') as a function of per-capita income; a similar model is used for vehicle ownership. The model estimations are based on annual data for 26 countries over the period 1960–1992; it is the first study to include countries covering the full range of income levels, from lowest to highest. The models are dynamically specified, so that short- and long-run income elasticities of car and vehicle ownership are estimated. These income elasticities depend upon per-capita income, ranging from about 2.0, for low- and middle-income levels (that is, ownership grows twice as fast as income), down to zero, as ownership saturation is approached for the highest income levels. The similarities and differences among countries are embodied within the model specification, and the implications for the projections are analyzed. ©

Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide, 1960-2015

This paper examines the effect of income on car ownership, and specifically the question of hysteresis or asymmetry. Although there is little doubt that rising income leads to higher car ownership, less is understood about the effect of falling income. Traditional demand modelling is based on the implicit assumption that demand responds symmetrically to rising and falling income. The object of this study is to test this assumption statistically. Using a dynamic econometric model relating household car ownership to income, the number of adults and children in the household, car prices and lagged car ownership, income decomposition techniques are employed to separately estimate elasticities with respect to rising and falling income. The equality of these elasticities – no hysteresis – is tested statistically against the inequality – hysteresis – hypothesis. Various functional specifications are tested in order to assure the robustness of the results to assumptions concerning functional form. The estimation is based on cohort data constructed from 1970 to 1995 UK Family Expenditure Surveys, and a pseudo-panel methodology is employed. The results indicate that car ownership responds more strongly to rising than to falling income – there is a ‘stickiness’ in the downward direction. In addition, there is evidence that the income elasticity is not constant, but instead declines with increasing car ownership.

The Effect Of Income On Car Ownership: Evidence Of Asymmetry

This paper conducts an international comparative analysis of relationships between car ownership, daily travel and urban form. Using travel diary data for the US and Great Britain, we estimate models of car ownership and daily travel distance. Both a structural model with daily travel conditional upon car ownership and a reduced form model for daily travel, excluding car ownership, are estimated. Model results are similar, and show that differences in travel are explained by (1) differences in demographics between the two countries; (2) lower household income in Great Britain; (3) country specific differences in costs of car ownership and use, transport supply and other factors we have not been able to control. We find that metropolitan size affects travel only in the largest metropolitan areas of the US. Daily travel distance is inversely related to local population density, but the effect is much stronger for the US than Great Britain. We conclude that higher transport costs in Great Britain promote economizing behavior, which in turns leads to more consumption of local goods and services and more use of alternative transport modes.

Joyce Dargay

Papers

Elasticities of Road Traffic and Fuel Consumption with Respect to Price and Income: A Review

Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030

Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide, 1960-2015

The Effect Of Income On Car Ownership: Evidence Of Asymmetry

Car ownership, travel and land use: a comparison of the US and Great Britain