textabstractIn Dutch: Naar een Nieuwe Wereldeconomie: voorstellen voor een internationaal economisch beleid, Rotterdam University Press, Rotterdam, 1965, XV + 335 p.\nIn Spanish: Hacia Una Economia Mundial: sugerencias para una politica economica internacional, Series Biblioteca de Economia No.7, Orbis, Barcelona, 1985, 242 p.

Shaping the World Economy. Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. By Jan Tinbergen. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 1962. pp. xvii, 330. Index. 4.00, cloth.

This paper fits a gravity model to the trade of 76 market economies. It then applies the model to data on East European economies to estimate what their trading potential might have been, had behaved like market economies in the mid-1980s. At existing levels of national income, the liberalization of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union is unlikely to affect their mutual trade and trade with developing countries, but it will increase trade with industrial counties by factors of three to thirty. West Germany and the USA are the principal beneficiaries of this new trade, increasing their exports and imports by over 20%. Trade must flow both ways, however: the West cannot increase its exports to the East without correspondingly increasing its imports.

The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/ces.1995.14.pdf

Towards an Integrated Europe

Using several recently available global datasets, this Staff Discussion Note examines macroeconomic effects of financial inclusion. It finds significant benefits to economic growth from financial inclusion, but the benefits diminish as financial inclusion and depth become large. Broadening access to credit can compromise economic and bank stability in countries with weak bank supervision. Other forms of financial inclusion—such as access to and use of bank accounts, branches, and ATMs—do not hurt stability, and can be promoted extensively. The note finds that gaps in financial inclusion are associated with economic inequality, but the association appears relatively weak.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/_sdn1517.ashx

Financial Inclusion; Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals?

Financial inclusion and energy poverty: Empirical evidence from Ghana

Financial inclusion is a key element of social inclusion, particularly useful in combating poverty and income inequality by opening blocked advancement opportunities for disadvantaged segments of the population. This study intends to investigate the impact of financial inclusion on reducing poverty and income inequality, and the determinants and conditional effects thereof in 116 developing countries. The analysis is carried out using an unbalanced annual panel data for the period of 2004–2016. For this purpose, we construct a novel index of financial inclusion using a broad set of financial sector outreach indicators, finding that per capita income, ratio of internet users, age dependency ratio, inflation, and income inequality significantly influence the level of financial inclusion in developing countries. Furthermore, the results provide robust evidence that financial inclusion significantly reduces poverty rates and income inequality in developing countries. The findings are in favor of further promoting access to and usage of formal financial services by marginalized segments of the population in order to maximize society’s overall welfare.

/pdf/does-financial-inclusion-reduce-poverty-and-income-2gr9dsv7gv.pdf

Does financial inclusion reduce poverty and income inequality in developing countries? A panel data analysis

The developing and least developed countries in the South and Southeast Asia have emerged as dynamic hosts of foreign direct investment; and inbound FDI growth surpassed that of the developing world during the decade 2001–2010. Yet foreign investment continues to flow quite unevenly into individual countries in the region, although majority of the Asian countries do emphasize liberalization unilaterally, bilaterally under the bilateral investment treaty (BIT) and the bilateral trade agreement (BTA), and regionally under the regional trade agreement (RTA). Under such scenarios, this study empirically assesses FDI determinants with a specific focus on the FDI effects of BIT, BTA, and RTA as well as of factors pertaining to institutional quality. Gravity-type econometric results of unbalanced panel data uncover that BIT, BTA, and RTA promote FDI insignificantly. It appears that the role of bilateral instruments in stimulating the inflow of foreign capital diminishes if liberal FDI policies already exist in the host country. Under such circumstances, the quality of the host country’s legal and regulatory environment exerts a profound influence on firms’ investment decisions. Nonetheless, core gravity variables are found to be important determinants of FDI. JEL Classification: C33, F21, F23.

/pdf/liberalization-and-fdi-performance-evidence-from-asean-and-1tlwnbfsuv.pdf

Liberalization and FDI Performance: Evidence from ASEAN and SAFTA Member Countries

As part of its growth strategy, Bangladesh instituted a trade liberalization process in the early 1990s which gained momentum in later years. Trade grew from 24.4 to 45% of GDP between 1980–81 and 2007–08, an indicator of increased liberalization as well as the growing importance of the external sector in Bangladesh. Apart from its unilateral liberalization, Bangladesh participates in three different regional trade agreements (RTAs): the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation Free Trade Area (BIMSTEC FTA). In addition, Bangladesh signed preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with the member countries of the Developing 8 (D8). Because of the growing importance of RTAs, this study investigates their contribution to the export flows from Bangladesh using the gravity model that has become the primary tool for estimating the trade effects of regional integration. Regression results of bilateral exports for 40 countries from 1992–2009 indicate two crucial aspects. Firstly, all the RTAs consistently maintained statistically significant negative signs, except the BIMSTEC FTA and SAFTA, which showed insignificantly positive and insignificantly negative effects respectively. Secondly, the intensity of negative effects and the level of significance have shown a declining trend as the status of those blocs has changed from political or economic cooperation agreements to preferential agreements and from preferential agreements to free trade agreements. Thus, the intensity of tariff liberalization and the degree of sectoral coverage seem to be the important determinants of the RTAs’ performance. Therefore, experts expect that full-fledged implementation of FTA provisions and the elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers might result in a higher degree of integration.

Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model

Dynamics of Comparative Advantage and Export Potentials in Bangladesh

There is a long debate among policymakers and academicians regarding whether assessments of international financial integration have significant growth benefits and whether such benefits compensate for the accompanied risks. Recent financial crisis has revived this debate. The previous empirical studies have not been able to establish conclusive presumed benefits of financial integration for economic growth. This paper attempts to analyze the financial openness and total factor productivity (TFP) growth nexususing dynamic panel regression models for a substantial sample of countries ranging from year 1970 to 2014. Different measures of financial openness are incorporated in the dataset. We find evidence that financial integration is associated with higher TFP growth. A range of integration measures (both de jure and de facto) shows robust association with financial integration and TFP growth. The result also suggests that financial development might reduce the marginal effects of financial integration on TFP growth. This finding, however, appears to be influenced by the recent global economic turmoil and excessive private finance, especially in recent years.

/pdf/financial-integration-and-total-factor-productivity-in-4tb14pp8dx.pdf

Kazuo Inaba

Papers

Does financial inclusion reduce poverty and income inequality in developing countries? A panel data analysis

Liberalization and FDI Performance: Evidence from ASEAN and SAFTA Member Countries

Impact of RTA and PTA on Bangladesh’s Export: Application of a Gravity Model

Dynamics of Comparative Advantage and Export Potentials in Bangladesh

Financial integration and total factor productivity: in consideration of different capital controls and foreign direct investment