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Modern Applied Statistics With S

An introduction to heat transfer

https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/skinner/psw_2005_skinner(agee)001.pdf

Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

/pdf/implications-of-changing-climate-for-global-wildland-fire-3ol75ysz53.pdf

Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

Forest fires are growing in size and frequency across the tropics. Continually eroding fragmented forest edges, they are unintended ecological disturbances that transcend deforestation to degrade vast regions of standing forest, diminishing ecosystem services and the economic potential of these natural resources. Affecting the health of millions, net forest fire emissions may have released carbon equivalent to 41% of worldwide fossil fuel use in 1997-98. Episodically more severe during El Nino events, pan-tropical forest fires will increase as more damaged, less fire-resistant, forests cover the landscape. Here I discuss the current state of tropical fire science and make recommendations for advancement.

Fire science for rainforests

/pdf/farsite-fire-area-simulator-model-development-and-evaluation-2fmdhe0wmn.pdf

FARSITE : Fire Area Simulator : model development and evaluation

Patterns of disconnected fuel treatment patches that overlap in the heading fire spread direction are theoretically effective in changing forward fire spread rate. The analysis presented here sought to find the unit shape and pattern for a given level of treatment that has the maximum effect on forward spread rate. This occurs when the treatment units cause the fire to spread through them at the same rate as it spreads around them. Simulations suggested that these treatment patterns reduce the spread rate or fireline intensity over much of the area burned, even outside the treatment units where the fire was forced to flank. The ideal patterns are theoretically scale independent, allowing for flexible application across heterogeneous landscapes. The topology of these patterns has implications for designing landscape-level fuel treatment patterns and for understanding spatial dynamics of fuel patterns across landscapes. FOR. SCI. 47(2):219-228.

Design of regular landscape fuel treatment patterns for modifying fire growth and behavior

The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire

https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/skinner/psw_2000_skinner(agee)001.pdf

The use of shaded fuelbreaks in landscape fire management.

Computerized and manual systems for modeling wildland fire behavior have long been available (Rothermel 1983, Andrews 1986). These systems focus on one-dimensional behaviors and assume the fire geometry is a spreading line-fire (in contrast with point or area-source fires). Models included in these systems were developed to calculate fire spread rate (Rothermel 1972, Albini 1976), fire shape (Anderson 1983, Alexander 1985), spot fire distance (Albini 1979, 1983) and crown fire spread rate (Van Wagner 1977, Rothermel 1991). The FlamMap program was developed for extending the utility of these models to a landscape-level where the necessary inputs have been mapped using geographic information systems (GIS). This paper documents the capabilities in FlamMap 3.0 and discusses some of the uses for such capabilities.

https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p041/rmrs_p041_213_220.pdf

Mark A. Finney

Papers

FARSITE : Fire Area Simulator : model development and evaluation

Design of regular landscape fuel treatment patterns for modifying fire growth and behavior

The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire

The use of shaded fuelbreaks in landscape fire management.

An Overview of FlamMap Fire Modeling Capabilities