A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0140525X00003435

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

Despite a long tradition of effectiveness in laboratory tests, normative messages have had mixed success in changing behavior in field contexts, with some studies showing boomerang effects. To test a theoretical account of this inconsistency, we conducted a field exper- iment in which normative messages were used to promote householdenergyconservation.Aspredicted,adescriptive normative message detailing average neighborhood usage produced either desirable energy savings or the undesir- able boomerang effect, depending on whether households were already consuming at a low or high rate. Also as predicted, adding an injunctive message (conveying social approval or disapproval) eliminated the boomerang effect. The results offer an explanation for the mixed success of persuasive appeals based on social norms and suggest how such appeals should be properly crafted.

/pdf/the-constructive-destructive-and-reconstructive-power-of-1gq9ws151u.pdf

The Constructive, Destructive, and Reconstructive Power of Social Norms

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American Psychological Association (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). The respondents, including several authors of statistics texts, were asked realistic questions about the robustness of statistical estimates and the replicability of research results. The article commented tongue-in-heek on the prevalence of a belief that the law of large numbers applies to small numbers as well: Respondents placed too much confidence in the results of small samples, and their statistical judgments showed little sensitivity to sample size. The mathematical psychologists who participated in the survey not only should have known better – they did know better. Although their intuitive guesses were off the mark, most of them could have computed the correct answers on the back of an envelope. These sophisticated individuals apparently had access to two distinct approaches for answering statistical questions: one that is spontaneous, intuitive, effortless, and fast; and another that is deliberate, rule-governed, effortful, and slow. The persistence of large biases in the guesses of experts raised doubts about the educability of statistical intuitions. Moreover, it was known that the same biases affect choices in the real world, where researchers commonly select sample sizes that are too small to provide a fair test of their hypotheses (Cohen, 1969, 1992).

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The affect heuristic

Abstract The 2001 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveyed students at 119 4-year colleges that participated in the 1993, 1997, and 1999 studies. Responses in the 4 survey years were compared to determine trends in heavy alcohol use, alcohol-related problems, and encounters with college and community prevention efforts. In 2001, approximately 2 in 5 (44.4%) college students reported binge drinking, a rate almost identical to rates in the previous 3 surveys. Very little change in overall binge drinking occurred at the individual college level. The percentages of abstainers and frequent binge drinkers increased, a polarization of drinking behavior first noted in 1997. A sharp rise in frequent binge drinking was noted among students attending all-women's colleges. Other significant changes included increases in immoderate drinking and harm among drinkers. More students lived in substance-free housing and encountered college educational efforts and sanctions resulting from their alcohol use.

Trends in College Binge Drinking during a Period of Increased Prevention Efforts. Findings from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study Surveys: 1933-2001.

The 2001 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study surveyed students at 119 4-year colleges that participated in the 1993, 1997, and 1999 studies. Responses in the 4 survey years were compared to determine trends in heavy alcohol use, alcohol-related problems, and encounters with college and community prevention efforts. In 2001, approximately 2 in 5 (44.4%) college students reported binge drinking, a rate almost identical to rates in the previous 3 surveys. Very little change in overall binge drinking occurred at the individual college level. The percentages of abstainers and frequent binge drinkers increased, a polarization of drinking behavior first noted in 1997. A sharp rise in frequent binge drinking was noted among students attending all-women's colleges. Other significant changes included increases in immoderate drinking and harm among drinkers. More students lived in substance-free housing and encountered college educational efforts and sanctions resulting from their alcohol use.

https://www-static.bouldercolorado.gov/docs/journal-american-college-health-study-1-201307101733.pdf

Trends in College Binge Drinking During a Period of Increased Prevention Efforts: Findings from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study Surveys: 1993–2001

In 1999, the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study resurveyed colleges that participated in the 1993 and 1997 surveys. Responses to mail questionnaires from more than 14 000 students at 119 nationally representative 4-year colleges in 39 states were compared with responses received in 1997 and 1993. Two of 5 students (44%) were binge drinkers in 1999, the same rate as in 1993. However, both abstention and frequent binge-drinking rates increased significantly. In 1999, 19% were abstainers, and 23% were frequent binge drinkers. As before, binge drinkers, and particularly frequent binge drinkers, were more likely than other students to experience alcohol-related problems. At colleges with high binge-drinking rates, students who did not binge drink continued to be at higher risk of encountering the secondhand effects of others’heavy drinking. The continuing high level of binge drinking is discussed in the context of the heightened attention and increased actions at colleges. Although it may take more time for interventions to take effect, the actions college health providers have undertaken thus far may not be a sufficient response.

/pdf/college-binge-drinking-in-the-1990s-a-continuing-problem-2rzwvc2qti.pdf

College Binge Drinking in the 1990s: A Continuing Problem

In 1999, the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study resurveyed colleges that participated in the 1993 and 1997 surveys Responses to mail questionnaires from more than 14,000 students at 119 nationally representative 4-year colleges in 39 states were compared with responses received in 1997 and 1993 Two of 5 students (44%) were binge drinkers in 1999, the same rate as in 1993 However, both abstention and frequent binge-drinking rates increased significantly In 1999, 19% were abstainers, and 23% were frequent binge drinkers As before, binge drinkers, and particularly frequent binge drinkers, were more likely than other students to experience alcohol-related problems At colleges with high binge-drinking rates, students who did not binge drink continued to be at higher risk of encountering the second-hand effects of others' heavy drinking The continuing high level of binge drinking is discussed in the context of the heightened attention and increased actions at colleges Although it may take more time for interventions to take effect, the actions college health providers have undertaken thus far may not be a sufficient response

College Binge Drinking in the 1990s: A Continuing Problem Results of the Harvard School of Public Health 1999 College Alcohol Study

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of alcohol abuse and dependence among U.S. college students, and to identify characteristics associated with these diagnoses. Method: More than 14,000 students at 119 4-year U.S. colleges completed a questionnaire that included items corresponding to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for alcohol abuse and dependence. Frequencies were computed, and correlations used to identify demographic, drinking and other variables associated with these diagnoses. Results: 31% percent of students endorsed criteria for an alcohol abuse diagnosis and 6% for a dependence diagnosis in the past 12 months. More than two of every five students reported at least one symptom of abuse or dependence. Students who were heavy episodic drinkers were more likely than those who were not to have an alcohol disorder. Students who were frequent heavy episodic drinkers had 13 times greater odds for abuse and 19 times greater odds for dependence. One of every five heavy episodic drinkers was classified with d...

Meichun Kuo

Papers

Trends in College Binge Drinking during a Period of Increased Prevention Efforts. Findings from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study Surveys: 1933-2001.

Trends in College Binge Drinking During a Period of Increased Prevention Efforts: Findings from 4 Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study Surveys: 1993–2001

College Binge Drinking in the 1990s: A Continuing Problem

College Binge Drinking in the 1990s: A Continuing Problem Results of the Harvard School of Public Health 1999 College Alcohol Study

Alcohol abuse and dependence among U.S. college students