The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

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Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change

Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait-based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open-access resources. Because rare, small-range, and declining-range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.

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Climate change vulnerability assessment of species

Four approaches to or levels of identifying macroinvertebrates (amateur/family, expert entomologist/genus, expert entomologist/genus-species, and DNA barcoding/species) were used to assess community structure and water quality in White Clay Creek, Pennsylvania, USA. Macroinverte- brates were collected in March 2008 from 2 riffle sites 3.9 km apart on the same stream. The downstream site was known to be degraded by land and water use. About 98% of the 1617 specimens used for analysis, including small, immature, and damaged specimens, were successfully barcoded (sequenced) for the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. A criterion of 2 to 4% genetic divergence provided good separation of presumptive species. Barcodes increased the taxonomic inventory across the 2 sites by 475% (124 taxa) relative to the amateur level, and 125% (83 taxa) and 70% (62 taxa) relative to the expert genus and species levels, respectively. Barcoding revealed species not currently described in larval taxonomic keys, including multiple (2-11) coexisting congeneric species. That 150 species were revealed by barcoding samples collected on the same date and in the same habitat was unprecedented, as was the fact that 60 cm 2 of stream bottom supported an average of 248 to 347 individuals representing 55 to 68 species. Most barcode species were rare, with 42% represented by ƒ2 individuals. Across all species, 43 of 89 barcode species were unique to upstream site 11 and 60 of 107 were unique to downstream site 12. In terms of water-quality assessment, most of the 17 metrics studied changed significantly (a = 0.05) when taxonomy changed from family to genus-species (79% and 93% for sites 11 and 12, respectively), and many also changed when taxonomy changed from genus to species (59 and 65% for sites 11 and 12, respectively). The proportion of metrics able to detect a difference (a = 0.05) between sites 11 and 12 increased with improved taxonomic resolution (36, 47, 65, and 76% for family, genus, genus-species, and barcode, respectively). The results revealed a pollution-tolerance gap because barcoding pushed larval taxonomy beyond the available pollution-tolerance data. Regardless, the combined morphological and molecular approach provides a finer resolution for evaluating environmental change associated with both natural and anthropogenic processes. The ability to distinguish larvae at the species level through barcoding finally puts biodiversity assessments for aquatic communities in terms comparable to those used for terrestrial ecosystems where estimates of biodiversity for plants and animals are never quantified at the level of genus or family. We conclude that DNA barcodes of stream macroinvertebrates will improve descriptions of community structure and water quality for both ecological and bioassessment purposes.

https://bioone.org/journals/freshwater-science/volume-30/issue-1/10-016.1/Can-DNA-barcodes-of-stream-macroinvertebrates-improve-descriptions-of-community/10.1899/10-016.1.pdf

Can DNA barcodes of stream macroinvertebrates improve descriptions of community structure and water quality

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) conservation is a possible success story in the making. If extinction of this iconic endangered species can be avoided, the species will become a showcase program for the Chinese government and its collaborators. We reviewed the major advancements in ecological science for the giant panda, examining how these advancements have contributed to panda conservation. Pandas' morphological and behavioral adaptations to a diet of bamboo, which bear strong influence on movement ecology, have been well studied, providing knowledge to guide management actions ranging from reserve design to climate change mitigation. Foraging ecology has also provided essential information used in the creation of landscape models of panda habitat. Because habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of the panda population decline, efforts have been made to help identify core habitat areas, establish where habitat corridors are needed, and prioritize areas for protection and restoration. Thus, habitat models have provided guidance for the Chinese governments' creation of 67 protected areas. Behavioral research has revealed a complex and efficient communication system and documented the need for protection of habitat that serves as a communication platform for bringing the sexes together for mating. Further research shows that den sites in old-growth forests may be a limiting resource, indicating potential value in providing alternative den sites for rearing offspring. Advancements in molecular ecology have been revolutionary and have been applied to population census, determining population structure and genetic diversity, evaluating connectivity following habitat fragmentation, and understanding dispersal patterns. These advancements form a foundation for increasing the application of adaptive management approaches to move panda conservation forward more rapidly. Although the Chinese government has made great progress in setting aside protected areas, future emphasis will be improved management of pandas and their habitat.

Progress in the ecology and conservation of giant pandas.

The Asian Elephant: Ecology and Management

Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs) to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

/pdf/modeling-impacts-of-climate-change-on-giant-panda-habitat-25js3s0mbl.pdf

Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

We compared genetic lineages in the mayfly genus Ephemerella (Ephemeroptera:Ephemerellidae) identified from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to current taxonomy in 9 morphological taxa, including 2 geographically widespread species, Ephemerella invaria ( = E. inconstans, E. rotunda, E. floripara) and Ephemerella dorothea ( = E. infrequens). Maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses of the mtDNA sequences placed E. inconstans and E. invaria in a well-supported clade; however, mean Kimura 2-parameter genetic distance between the lineages was high (5.2%) relative to distance within lineages (1.3%). The phylogenetic relationships of synonyms E. rotunda and E. floripara were not resolved, but estimates of mean genetic distance to E. invaria were high for both (8.5% and 11.6%, respectively). Populations of E. dorothea were grouped in 2 well-supported clades (12.9% mean divergence) that did not include the synonym E. infrequens (20.9% mean divergence, based on a single sample). A large genetic distance (18.6%) ...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1899/08-150.1

Mitochondrial lineages and DNA barcoding of closely related species in the mayfly genus Ephemerella (Ephemeroptera:Ephemerellidae)

Habitat loss and the resulting human-elephant conflict (HEC) are threatening the survival of wild Asian elephant populations (Sukumar 1989, 2003; Fernando et al. 2005, Fernando & Leimgruber 2011). The geographic range of the Asian elephant has declined as much as 75% over the last century (Fernando & Leimgruber 2011). The two major causes for the loss of Asian elephant habitat are: a) expansion of subsistence agriculture and b) broad-scale conversion of elephant habitats into industrial plantations and agriculture such as sugar cane, rubber, and oil palm (Flint 1994; Leimgruber et al. 2003; Sodhi et al. 2004; Koh & Wilcove 2008; Uryu et al. 2008). Habitat loss patterns vary significantly across the 13 Asian elephant range countries and habitat losses can be catastrophic both locally and regionally (Santiapillai & Jackson 1990; Leimgruber et al. 2003; Fernando & Leimgruber 2011). Yet, baseline data against which to evaluate habitat loss has not been compiled for most of this geographic range and little information on elephant habitat, land cover and habitat loss is available for systematic assessments, monitoring, and conservation planning.

Melanie Delion

Papers

Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

Mitochondrial lineages and DNA barcoding of closely related species in the mayfly genus Ephemerella (Ephemeroptera:Ephemerellidae)

Mapping Habitat and Deforestation in WWF Elephant Priority Landscapes