Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

We propose that the crucial difference between human cognition and that of other species is the ability to participate with others in collaborative activities with shared goals and intentions: shared intentionality. Participation in such activities requires not only especially powerful forms of intention reading and cultural learning, but also a unique motivation to share psychological states with oth- ers and unique forms of cognitive representation for doing so. The result of participating in these activities is species-unique forms of cultural cognition and evolution, enabling everything from the creation and use of linguistic symbols to the construction of social norms and individual beliefs to the establishment of social institutions. In support of this proposal we argue and present evidence that great apes (and some children with autism) understand the basics of intentional action, but they still do not participate in activities involving joint intentions and attention (shared intentionality). Human children's skills of shared intentionality develop gradually during the first 14 months of life as two ontogenetic pathways intertwine: (1) the general ape line of understanding others as animate, goal-directed, and intentional agents; and (2) a species-unique motivation to share emotions, experience, and activities with other persons. The develop- mental outcome is children's ability to construct dialogic cognitive representations, which enable them to participate in earnest in the collectivity that is human cognition.

/pdf/understanding-and-sharing-intentions-the-origins-of-cultural-4ndpnm3ov3.pdf

Understanding and sharing intentions: The origins of cultural cognition

While the study of psychology has offered little in the way of explaining the creative process, Koestler examines the idea that we are at our most creative when rational thought is suspended--for example, in dreams and trancelike states. All who read The Act of Creation will find it a compelling and illuminating book.

The Act of Creation

More than 12 studies of different bottlenose dolphin populations, spanning from tropical to cold temperate waters, have shown that the species typically lives in societies in which relationships among individuals are predominantly fluid. In all cases dolphins lived in small groups characterised by fluid and dynamic interactions and some degree of dispersal from the natal group by both sexes. We describe a small, closed population of bottlenose dolphins living at the southern extreme of the species' range. Individuals live in large, mixed-sex groups in which no permanent emigration/immigration has been observed over the past 7 years. All members within the community are relatively closely associated (average half-weight index>0.4). Both male–male and female–female networks of preferred associates are present, as are long-lasting associations across sexes. The community structure is temporally stable, compared to other bottlenose dolphin populations, and constant companionship seems to be prevalent in the temporal association pattern. Such high degrees of stability are unprecedented in studies of bottlenose dolphins and may be related to the ecological constraints of Doubtful Sound. Fjords are low-productivity systems in which survival may easily require a greater level of co-operation, and hence group stability. These conditions are also present in other cetacean populations forming stable groups. We therefore hypothesise that ecological constraints are important factors shaping social interactions within cetacean societies.

The bottlenose dolphin community of Doubtful Sound features a large proportion of long-lasting associations

Definitive studies on the response of marine mammals to anthropogenic sound are hampered by the short surface time and deep-diving lifestyle of many species. A novel archival tag, called the DTAG, has been developed to monitor the behavior of marine mammals, and their response to sound, continuously throughout the dive cycle. The tag contains a large array of solid-state memory and records continuously from a built-in hydrophone and suite of sensors. The sensors sample the orientation of the animal in three dimensions with sufficient speed and resolution to capture individual fluke strokes. Audio and sensor recording is synchronous so the relative timing of sounds and motion can be determined precisely. The DTAG has been attached to more than 30 northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) and 20 sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) with recording duration of up to 12 h per deployment. Several deployments have included sound playbacks to the tagged whale and a transient response to at least one playback is evident in the tag data.

/pdf/a-digital-acoustic-recording-tag-for-measuring-the-response-2dk62359id.pdf

A digital acoustic recording tag for measuring the response of wild marine mammals to sound

(2008). MARINE MAMMAL NOISE-EXPOSURE CRITERIA: INITIAL SCIENTIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS. Bioacoustics: Vol. 17, No. 1-3, pp. 273-275.

Marine mammal noise-exposure criteria: initial scientific recommendations

The bottlenose dolphin: social relationships in a fission-fusion society

1
Since the last thorough review of the effects of anthropogenic noise on cetaceans in 1995, a substantial number of research reports has been published and our ability to document response(s), or the lack thereof, has improved. While rigorous measurement of responses remains important, there is an increased need to interpret observed actions in the context of population-level consequences and acceptable exposure levels. There has been little change in the sources of noise, with the notable addition of noise from wind farms and novel acoustic deterrent and harassment devices (ADDs/AHDs). Overall, the noise sources of primary concern are ships, seismic exploration, sonars of all types and some AHDs.

2
Responses to noise fall into three main categories: behavioural, acoustic and physiological. We reviewed reports of the first two exhaustively, reviewing all peer-reviewed literature since 1995 with exceptions only for emerging subjects. Furthermore, we fully review only those studies for which received sound characteristics (amplitude and frequency) are reported, because interpreting what elicits responses or lack of responses is impossible without this exposure information. Behavioural responses include changes in surfacing, diving and heading patterns. Acoustic responses include changes in type or timing of vocalizations relative to the noise source. For physiological responses we address the issues of auditory threshold shifts and ‘stress’, albeit in a more limited capacity; a thorough review of physiological consequences is beyond the scope of this paper.

3
Overall, we found significant progress in the documentation of responses of cetaceans to various noise sources. However, we are concerned about the lack of investigation into the potential effects of prevalent noise sources such as commercial sonars, depth finders and fisheries acoustics gear. Furthermore, we were surprised at the number of experiments that failed to report any information about the sound exposure experienced by their experimental subjects. Conducting experiments with cetaceans is challenging and opportunities are limited, so use of the latter should be maximized and include rigorous measurements and or modelling of exposure.

Responses of cetaceans to anthropogenic noise

Reliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds, amphibians, and insects, especially in situations where inferences are required over long periods of time. There is considerable work ahead, with several potentially fruitful research areas, including the development of (i) hardware and software for data acquisition, (ii) efficient, calibrated, automated detection and classification systems, and (iii) statistical approaches optimized for this application. Further, survey design will need to be developed, and research is needed on the acoustic behaviour of target species. Fundamental research on vocalization rates and group sizes, and the relation between these and other factors such as season or behaviour state, is critical. Evaluation of the methods under known density scenarios will be important for empirically validating the approaches presented here.

/pdf/estimating-animal-population-density-using-passive-acoustics-qeruqnptgn.pdf

Peter L. Tyack

Papers

A digital acoustic recording tag for measuring the response of wild marine mammals to sound

Marine mammal noise-exposure criteria: initial scientific recommendations

The bottlenose dolphin: social relationships in a fission-fusion society

Responses of cetaceans to anthropogenic noise

Estimating animal population density using passive acoustics