世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

In Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, henceforth AJR, (2001), we advanced the hypothesis that the mortality rates faced by Europeans in different parts of the world after 1500 affected their willingness to establish settlements and choice of colonization strategy. Places that were relatively healthy (for Europeans) were—when they fell under European control—more likely to receive better economic and political institutions. In contrast, places where European settlers were less likely to go were more likely to have “extractive” institutions imposed. We also posited that this early pattern of institutions has persisted over time and influences the extent and nature of institutions in the modern world. On this basis, we proposed using estimates of potential European settler mortality as an instrument for institutional variation in former European colonies today. Data on settlers themselves are unfortunately patchy—particularly because not many went to places they believed, with good reason, to be most unhealthy. We therefore followed the lead of Curtin (1989 and 1998) who compiled data on the death rates faced by European soldiers in various overseas postings. 1 Curtin’s data were based on pathbreaking data collection and statistical work initiated by the British military in the mid-nineteenth century. These data became part of the foundation of both contemporary thinking about public health (for soldiers and for civilians) and the life insurance industry (as actuaries and executives considered the

/pdf/the-colonial-origins-of-comparative-development-an-empirical-4a7vtfps9i.pdf

The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation

Explaining cross-country differences in growth rates requires not only an understanding of the link between growth and public policies, but also an understanding of why countries choose different public policies. This paper shows that ethnic diversity helps explain cross-country differences in public policies and other economic indicators. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is associated with low schooling, political instability, underdeveloped financial systems, distorted foreign exchange markets, high government deficits, and insufficient infrastructure. Africa's high ethnic fragmentation explains a significant part of most of these characteristics.

https://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/17_easterly_levine_africasgrowthtragedy_prp.pdf

Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions

This paper examines the progressive development of the new institutional economics over the past quarter century. It begins by distinguishing four levels of social analysis, with special emphasis on the institutional environment and the institutions of governance. It then turns to some of the good ideas out of which the NIE works: the description of human actors, feasibility, firms as governance structures, and operationalization. Applications, including privatization, are briefly discussed. Its empirical successes, public policy applications, and other accomplishments notwithstanding, there is a vast amount of unfinished business.

The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We survey the empirical literature analyzing the process of enterprise restructuring in transition economies. The survey provides new insights into the relative effectiveness of different reform policies, and into how this effectiveness varies across regions. We study the effects of privatization, the importance of different types of owners, the effects of foreign and domestic competition, the consequences of soft budgets, and the role of managerial incentives and managerial human capital, on enterprise restructuring.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=238716

Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey

We survey the empirical literature analyzing the process of enterprise restructuring in transition economies. The survey provides new insights into the relative effectiveness of different reform policies, and into how this effectiveness varies across regions. We study the effects of privatization, the importance of different types of owners, the effects of foreign and domestic competition, the consequences of soft budgets, and the role of managerial incentives and managerial human capital, with regard to enterprise restructuring.

/pdf/enterprise-restructuring-in-transition-a-quantitative-survey-4ps72f1r37.pdf

List of figures Foreword Elinor Ostrom 1. Introduction Bertin Martens 2. Conflicts of objectives and task allocation in aid agencies Paul Seabright 3. The interaction of donors, contractors and recipients in implementing aid for institutional reform Peter Murrell 4. Embedding externally induced institutional reform Uwe Mummert 5. The role of evaluation in foreign aid programmes Bertin Martens 6. Some policy conclusions regarding organizations involved in foreign aid Bertin Martens Index.

/pdf/the-institutional-economics-of-foreign-aid-3ot53eik2t.pdf

The Institutional Economics of Foreign Aid

The results of the previous section, estimates of a three equation model from 23 observations, must obviously be regarded as tentative. The consistent positive relationship between number of interest groups and size of government observed with changing sets of included independent variables, changing samples of nations, and treating the number of interest groups as either exogenous or codetermined, does imply rather unequivocally that interest groups are able to influence public policies in such a manner as to lead to increased government size. Beyond helping to reinforce this conclusion, the results of the previous section should be regarded as first steps in the development of a model of the polity that can explain participation in the political process by interest groups and citizens as well as the size of government. The two most important variables explaining government size other than the number of interest groups proved to be population and the percentage of the population voting. The consistently negative relationship between relative government size and population is noteworthy since several recent papers have assumed that the only government output is redistribution. The negative relationship, implying that an increase in population leads to a less than proportionate increase in the size of government, shows that government expenditure exhibits a most basic public good characteristic. The percentage of the population voting, which probably is closely related to the proportion of voters with incomes below the median, consistently has a positive and significant impact on the size of government. The Meltzer-Richard hypothesis that greater participation by low income voters leads to more redistribution and greater government size is strongly supported. The inclusion of both the interest group and voter participation variables in the government size equation relies on theories related to redistributive activities. The voter participation variable posits a direct responsiveness of government outcomes to voter preferences through the operation of the median voter theorem, and implies rich-to-poor redistribution. The interest group theory posits increasing government size through the addition to the public weal of expenditures on goods with disproportionate benefits for certain interest groups. Such expenditures have distributional implications since in the absence of government provision the interest groups would either go without the goods or have to provide them themselves. While the theory makes no explicit prediction about the direction of this redistributional flow, since the largest single category of interest groups in most countries by far is industry trade associations, one might expect poor-to-rich redistribution as the most likely consequence of interest group influence. Thus, the possibility exists that the influence of the two variables on the distribution of income might be largely offsetting, while their influence on the size of government is cumulative. Disaggregating the effects of these and other public choice variables is a promising avenue for future research.

Interest groups and the size of government

A prominent theorist of Soviet and East European economics critiques the vision of political and economic processes implicit in shock therapy, defending an alternative, evolutionary approach. The critique of shock therapy rests on both theoretical reasoning and examination of evidence from recent cases. An intensive study of economic change in Poland and Russia since the late-1980s concludes that, in both countries, shock therapy failed in its goal of implementing top-down reforms that by-pass existing political and social forces. The evolutionary approach, it is argued, holds the better prospect of generating economic progress that will be sustained over the long term. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E61, L33, P21, P51.

/pdf/what-is-shock-therapy-what-did-it-do-in-poland-and-russia-2ut2a6d8x2.pdf

Peter Murrell

Papers

Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey

Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey

The Institutional Economics of Foreign Aid

Interest groups and the size of government

What is Shock Therapy? What Did it Do in Poland and Russia?