Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change

[1] Mountains are important sources of freshwater for the adjacent lowlands. In view of increasingly scarce freshwater resources, this contribution should be clarified. While earlier studies focused on selected river systems in different climate zones, we attempt here a first spatially explicit, global typology of the so-called “water towers” at the 0.5° × 0.5° resolution in order to identify critical regions where disproportionality of mountain runoff as compared to lowlands is maximum. Then, an Earth systems perspective is considered with incorporation of lowland climates, distinguishing four different types of water towers. We show that more than 50% of mountain areas have an essential or supportive role for downstream regions. Finally, the potential significance of water resources in mountains is illustrated by including the actual population in the adjacent lowlands and its water needs: 7% of global mountain area provides essential water resources, while another 37% delivers important supportive supply, especially in arid and semiarid regions where vulnerability for seasonal and regional water shortage is high.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2006WR005653

Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and global significance

The devastating civil war that began in Syria in March 2011 is the result of complex interrelated factors. The focus of the conflict is regime change, but the triggers include a broad set of religious and sociopolitical factors, the erosion of the economic health of the country, a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant region, and challenges associated with climate variability and change and the availability and use of freshwater. As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. There is a long history of conflicts over water in these regions because of the natural water scarcity, the early development of irrigated agriculture, and complex religious and ethnic diversity. In recent years, there has been an increase in incidences of water-related violence around the world at the subnational level attributable to the role that water plays in development disputes and econom...

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Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria

http://protosh2o.act.be/VIRTUELE_BIB/Water_in_de_Wereld/CON-Waterconflicten_en_rampen/W_CON_E6_hydro-hegemony_framework.pdf

Hydro-hegemony – a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts

. Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered by climate change. How well do we understand these potential changes today, and what are implications for water resources management, climate change adaptation, and evolving water policy? To answer above questions, we have examined 11 case study regions with the goal of providing a global overview, identifying research gaps and formulating recommendations for research, management and policy. After setting the scene regarding water stress, water management capacity and scientific capacity in our case study regions, we examine the state of knowledge in water resources from a highland-lowland viewpoint, focusing on mountain areas on the one hand and the adjacent lowland areas on the other hand. Based on this review, research priorities are identified, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil parameters, evapotranspiration and sublimation, groundwater as well as enhanced warming and feedback mechanisms. In addition, the importance of environmental monitoring at high altitudes is highlighted. We then make recommendations how advancements in the management of mountain water resources under climate change could be achieved in the fields of research, water resources management and policy as well as through better interaction between these fields. We conclude that effective management of mountain water resources urgently requires more detailed regional studies and more reliable scenario projections, and that research on mountain water resources must become more integrative by linking relevant disciplines. In addition, the knowledge exchange between managers and researchers must be improved and oriented towards long-term continuous interaction.

/pdf/climate-change-and-mountain-water-resources-overview-and-1dhsw6caic.pdf

Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy

http://www.ingenieroambiental.com/4014/basins.pdf

International waters: identifying basins at risk

In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco-nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.

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Conflict and cooperation over international freshwater resources: Indicators of basins at risk

[1] The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database provides a framework for quantitative, global-scale explorations of the relationship between freshwater resources and international cooperation and conflict. Projects were designed to test common theories linking freshwater resources to cooperation and conflict, in particular within the context of geography and environmental security. The projects, which follow in sequence, consider three main hypotheses on the likelihood and intensity of water resource disputes. To test these hypotheses, a unique set of tools was created that links water-specific event data with a geographic information system (GIS) that meshes biophysical, political, and socioeconomic data sets at the river basin and other scales. There are three linked data sets: (1) an event data set documenting historical water relations, including a methodology for identifying and classifying events by their intensity of cooperation/conflict; (2) a GIS data set of countries and international basins, both current and historical; and (3) a spatial data set of biophysical, socioeconomic, and political variables, linked to the GIS. This paper describes the hypotheses, the above tools created to test them, and a methodological framework for utilizing the linked event and GIS data sets, providing three projects as examples: (1) indicators of international basins at risk of political tensions, (2) relationships between internal and international hydropolitics in three geographic regions, and (3) hydroclimatological variables and international water relations.

/pdf/geography-of-international-water-conflict-and-cooperation-1safdjkhb2.pdf

Geography of international water conflict and cooperation: Data sets and applications

This article addresses the question of whether water as a geographic feature enhances the likelyhood that a state would go to war. Over the past few decades, geopolitical literature on water's role in international conflict has increased, and the 1990s have seen a turn toward considering water in terms of cooperation, rather than conflict. Drawing on a vast literature on geography's role in international relations, and analysing key concepts of ‘hydro‐strategic territory’ and ‘environmental security’, the article examines the validity of this claim. Through a critical examination of the hydropolitics of the Middle East, it is established that while water may be a source of international tensions, it is more often the subject of intense negotiation that an object or cause of armed conflict.

Water, conflict and cooperation: Geographical perspectives

The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The authors are responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in this book and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This article is a contribution from UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme to the World Water Assessment Programme. It was prepared within the framework of the joint UNESCO–Green Cross International project entitled " From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP): Water for Peace, " and was made possible by the generous financial assistance of the Japanese government. The BAR project was a team effort at its best, relying on the dedication and generosity of a vast number of researchers and professionals. I am more indebted than I can say for the commitment of the research group at OSU: Their skill and long hours are extraordinarily appreciated. This project simply would not have been possible without the support of a number of other individuals as well. First and foremost, we are grateful for the leadership, assistance, and insight of Dr. Norm Kahn. Warm thanks too are due to This was also an extraordinarily data-intensive project, which relied on the generosity of many researchers around the world who are committed to open distribution of their incredibly rich data sets,

Shira B. Yoffe

Papers

International waters: identifying basins at risk

Conflict and cooperation over international freshwater resources: Indicators of basins at risk

Geography of international water conflict and cooperation: Data sets and applications

Water, conflict and cooperation: Geographical perspectives

International waters: indicators for identifying basins at risk