The Personal Interview

Perception and Misperception in International Politics

That Noble Dream: The "Objectivity Question" and the American Historical Profession. Peter Novick

: A prior effort, State of Knowledge Relative to Intelligence Analysis, was initially motivated by the fact that seemingly little change had resulted from numerous studies of the intelligence community. Starting with Pearl Harbor, the U.S. intelligence community has often faced criticism for failing to predict or warn of future events. Though the criticisms have come from different groups, a certain commonality exists among the proposals for change in the intelligence community. The other noteworthy feature of these proposals is how little their content has changed over time. A thorough analysis of the intelligence literature was accomplished. This analysis provided an answer to the question of whether the existing literature on intelligence analysis contains the requisite knowledge to inform the development and application of both the mechanistic and cognitive activities to support doing intelligence analysis. A dominant finding was how little the practice of intelligence analysis had been informed by the findings in related scientific disciplines. The primary objective of this research effort was to understand the research findings in relevant scientific disciplines and to relate these findings to the practice of intelligence analysis. This research effort was based on the full text of over 5,800 documents consisting of nearly 172,000 pages. Our analysis of the current intelligence literature showed a continuation of previously observed trends. The number of publications dealing with intelligence analysis has decreased since 2007; in 2012 publication was at the level observed in 1996-1997. Also, we observed that the literature places less emphasis on the improvement of the quality of intelligence analysis. During the effort described in this report we conducted research syntheses for the topics of critical thinking, thinking dispositions, epistemological beliefs, practice based training, and various facets of cognition.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA595401.pdf

Advanced Analysis Cognition: Improving the Cognition of Intelligence Analysis

Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror Richard A. Clarke Free Press, 2004 Subject only to one important qualification, it would be hard to imagine anyone better positioned than Richard A. Clarke to speak authoritatively on questions relating to the United States' present war with Islamic radicalism. He began his federal service in highly sensitive areas of national security more than thirty years ago and has served under a succession of presidents in positions that have shown a high level of confidence in his ability and character: Under Reagan, he was Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence; under George H. W. Bush, he was Assistant Secretary of State of Politico-Military Affairs and a member of the National Security Council staff; under Clinton, he was the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism; and he was continued in that role by George W. Bush until 2003, at which time he was given other responsibilities at the highest level. The confidence reposed in him by presidents of varied political and ideological persuasions has been so substantial and consistent that it would seem incongruous for anyone to attempt to refute what he says in this very candid and articulate book by attacking the man himself. Nor would it be justifiable to brush aside what he says as though it comes from a figure who has been only on the periphery of policy and events. He has been in the inner sanctum of several administrations. The qualification comes from the fact that Clarke does indeed have certain biases. Without them, the tone of this book would be much more non-partisan, which is what might be expected from a career civil servant who has served a variety of presidents. His book is biting in its criticism of George W. Bush and his team for what has gone wrong in American intelligence and national security. This criticism of Bush wouldn't be lessened in the absence of Clarke's cultural predispositions, but he would assign blame much more heavily upon William Clinton than he does. He says Clinton was ineffectual in critically important ways. Because of the intense political opposition Clinton experienced during the Lewinsky and other episodes, Clinton was prevented from replacing the FBI director, Louis Freeh, thereby allowing a poorly organized FBI to remain of little value in the struggle against terrorism. And because of his strained relationship with the military, Clinton wasn't able to get the military to conduct commando raids against terrorist targets. It is noteworthy that the blame for this ineffectuality lies, in Clarke's perception, not with Clinton but with Clinton's opponents, whose "bitterness knew no bounds" and who "turned the President's personal problem into a global, public circus for their own political ends." In effect, Clarke thinks that there could be little good faith in anyone's thinking that Clinton's own conduct disgraced the presidency. The opposition to the President's sexual escapades must have been born out of political opportunism. Neither does he see any incongruity in a man's having been elected president (and thus made Commander in Chief) who had been a sworn enemy of the military and a participant in the anti-Vietnam War movement (which, we recall, took its alienation to considerable lengths). The explanation for Clarke's perspective may come when he tells us that "I had been an anti-Vietnam War protester in the 1960s." In this context, we may infer from Clarke's attitudes toward Clinton that Clarke shared at least in part the values of the 1960s counterculture, which embraced both "sexual liberation" and animus toward the military. This produces condonation toward Clinton and anger toward his adversaries. The fact that Clarke is not entirely even-handed in assigning blame, however, is important only in the context of the matters just mentioned. They are by no means inconsequential, which is why they are mentioned here; but what Clarke says about other matters is of such importance that the focus must necessarily be upon those things. …

Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror

Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates

Intelligence agencies might benefit from assessing existing medical practices for possible use in improving the accuracy of intelligence analysis and its incorporation into policymaking. The proces...

/pdf/improving-intelligence-analysis-by-looking-to-the-medical-1f23zt6koa.pdf

Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the Medical Profession

This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. 
Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. 
The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.

Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice

In the United States, the training and education of national security intelligence analysts in both government and academia is undergoing significant changes. Most of them are associated with effor...

Training and Educating U.S. Intelligence Analysts

(2003). CIA's Kent School: Improving Training for New Analysts. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence: Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 609-637.

Stephen Marrin

Papers

Intelligence Theory: Key Questions and Debates

Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the Medical Profession

Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice

Training and Educating U.S. Intelligence Analysts

CIA's Kent School: Improving Training for New Analysts