Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems

Human Development Report, 1990.@@@Human Development Report, 1991.

This chapter is devoted to a more detailed examination of game theory. Game theory is an important tool for analyzing strategic behavior, is concerned with how individuals make decisions when they recognize that their actions affect, and are affected by, the actions of other individuals or groups. Strategic behavior recognizes that the decision-making process is frequently mutually interdependent. Game theory is the study of the strategic behavior involving the interaction of two or more individuals, teams, or firms, usually referred to as players. Two game theoretic scenarios were examined in this chapter: Simultaneous-move and multi-stage games. In simultaneous-move games the players effectively move at the same time. A normal-form game summarizes the players, possible strategies and payoffs from alternative strategies in a simultaneous-move game. Simultaneous-move games may be either noncooperative or cooperative. In contrast to noncooperative games, players of cooperative games engage in collusive behavior. A Nash equilibrium, which is a solution to a problem in game theory, occurs when the players’ payoffs cannot be improved by changing strategies. Simultaneous-move games may be either one-shot or repeated games. One-shot games are played only once. Repeated games are games that are played more than once. Infinitely-repeated games are played over and over again without end. Finitely-repeated games are played a limited number of times. Finitely-repeated games have certain or uncertain ends.

An Introduction to Game Theory

Background This paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration9s (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat. Methods The PATH Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of 45 971 adults and youth in the USA, aged 12 years and older. Wave 1 was conducted from 12 September 2013 to 15 December 2014 using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing to collect information on tobacco-use patterns, risk perceptions and attitudes towards current and newly emerging tobacco products, tobacco initiation, cessation, relapse behaviours and health outcomes. The PATH Study9s design allows for the longitudinal assessment of patterns of use of a spectrum of tobacco products, including initiation, cessation, relapse and transitions between products, as well as factors associated with use patterns. Additionally, the PATH Study collects biospecimens from consenting adults aged 18 years and older and measures biomarkers of exposure and potential harm related to tobacco use. Conclusions The cumulative, population-based data generated over time by the PATH Study will contribute to the evidence base to inform FDA9s regulatory mission under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act and efforts to reduce the Nation9s burden of tobacco-related death and disease.

https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/tobaccocontrol/26/4/371.full.pdf

Design and methods of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

Modern society's physical health depends vitally upon a number of real, interdependent, critical infrastructure networks that deliver power, petroleum, natural gas,water, and communications. Its economic health depends on a number of other infrastructure networks, some virtual and some real, that link residences, industries, commercial sectors, and transportation sectors. The continued prosperity and national security of the US depends on our ability to understand the vulnerabilities of and analyze the performance of both the individual infrastructures and the entire interconnected system of infrastructures. Only then can we respond to potential disruptions in a timely and effective manner. Collaborative efforts among Sandia, other government agencies, private industry, and academia have resulted in realistic models for many of the individual component infrastructures. In this paper, we propose an innovative modeling and analysis framework to study the entire system of physical and economic infrastructures. That framework uses the existing individual models together with system dynamics, functional models, and nonlinear optimization algorithms. We describe this framework and demonstrate its potential use to analyze, and propose a response for, a hypothetical disruption.

Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies.

Modern society's physical health depends vitally upon a number of real, interdependent, critical infrastructure networks that deliver power, petroleum, natural gas, water, and communications. Its economic health depends on a number of other infrastructure networks, some virtual and some real, that link residences, industries, commercial sectors, and transportation sectors. The continued prosperity and national security of the US depends on our ability to understand the vulnerabilities of and analyze the performance of both the individual infrastructures and the entire interconnected system of infrastructures. Only then can we respond to potential disruptions in a timely and effective manner. Collaborative efforts among Sandia, other government agencies, private industry, and academia have resulted in realistic models for many of the individual component infrastructures. In this paper, we propose an innovative modeling and analysis framework to study the entire system of physical and economic infrastructur...

Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies

Infrastructures are a complex set of interconnected, interdependent, adaptive systems on which the nation, manufacturing systems and individuals depend. Understanding the potential consequences of infrastructure interdependencies, as the infrastructures evolve and the regulations governing their operation change, is at the heart of our infrastructure interdependencies research program. This program includes development of analysis methods and simulation tools for evaluating the potential effects of disruptions and for prioritising risks. Fundamental infrastructures simulated using these tools include; transportation, telecommunications, electric power, banking and finance, water, agriculture, emergency services, fossil fuels, and government. The complexity of the infrastructures and their interactions prevent us from knowing a priori how these interactions will influence individuals, states or the nation; the consequences of policy decisions; vulnerabilities due to interdependencies, natural disasters, malevolent threats and aging; or vulnerabilities that need to be eliminated in order to assure individual, state or national economic security. The goal of the interdependency analyses is to identify significant risks to critical systems, arising from interconnection, and effective mechanisms for mitigating those risks. This article presents the infrastructure interdependency assessment process, modelling tools developed to support that process and examples of assessment results.

Assessing infrastructure interdependencies: the challenge of risk analysis for complex adaptive systems

Background 
Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.


Methods and Findings 
We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.


Conclusion 
Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

/pdf/modeling-the-potential-effects-of-new-tobacco-products-and-476tz4mgkb.pdf

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Critical national infrastructures for power, emergency services, finance, and other basic industries rely heavily on information and telecommunications ne tworks (voice, data, Internet) to provide services and conduct business While these networks tend to be highly reliable, severe, large scale outages do occur, especially at times of unfolding disasters, which can lead to cascading effects on other dependent infrastructures This paper describes recent natural disasters in the USA, namely hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, and the impacts they have had on power outages and flooding leading to failures on the dependent critical infrastructure In particular we consider the impact of these disasters on the affected telecommunication networks We quantify the level of availability of wireline and wireless services during these network failures We also discuss studies that were performed in preparation for a hurricane impact The studies have been performed using the Network Simulation Modeling and Analysis Research Tool (N-SMART), which has been developed to support detailed wireline and wireless network simulations under varying network condition s and degrees of failures We analyze the levels of outages and recovery times for these disaster events as well as possible mitigations to prepare in advance for these and other potential future disasters

Theresa J. Brown

Papers

Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies.

Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies

Assessing infrastructure interdependencies: the challenge of risk analysis for complex adaptive systems

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

Critical Infrastructure Analysis of Telecom for Natural Disasters