THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the ‘hat’ matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding pD to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.

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Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

How should ecologists and evolutionary biologists analyze nonnormal data that involve random effects? Nonnormal data such as counts or proportions often defy classical statistical procedures. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide a more flexible approach for analyzing nonnormal data when random effects are present. The explosion of research on GLMMs in the last decade has generated considerable uncertainty for practitioners in ecology and evolution. Despite the availability of accurate techniques for estimating GLMM parameters in simple cases, complex GLMMs are challenging to fit and statistical inference such as hypothesis testing remains difficult. We review the use (and misuse) of GLMMs in ecology and evolution, discuss estimation and inference and summarize 'best-practice' data analysis procedures for scientists facing this challenge.

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Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution

Statistics for Spatial Data.

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

We consider hierarchical generalized linear models which allow extra error components in the linear predictors of generalized linear models. The distribution of these components is not restricted to be normal; this allows a broader class of models, which includes generalized linear mixed models. We use a generalization of Henderson's joint likelihood, called a hierarchical or h-likelihood, for inferences from hierarchical generalized linear models. This avoids the integration that is necessary when marginal likelihood is used. Under appropriate conditions maximizing the h-likelihood gives fixed effect estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to those obtained from the use of marginal likelihood; at the same time we obtain the random effect estimates that are asymptotically best unbiased predictors. An adjusted profile h-likelihood is shown to give the required generalization of restricted maximum likelihood for the estimation of dispersion components. A scaled deviance test for the goodness of fit, a model selection criterion for choosing between various dispersion models and a graphical method for checking the distributional assumption of random effects are proposed. The ideas of quasi-likelihood and extended quasi-likelihood are generalized to the new class. We give examples of the Poisson-gamma, binomial-beta and gamma-inverse gamma hierarchical generalized linear models. A resolution is proposed for the apparent difference between population-averaged and subject-specific models. A unified framework is provided for viewing and extending many existing methods.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02105.x

Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models

LIST OF NOTATIONS PREFACE INTRODUCTION CLASSICAL LIKELIHOOD THEORY Definition Quantities derived from the likelihood Profile likelihood Distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic Distribution of the MLE and the Wald statistic Model selection Marginal and conditional likelihoods Higher-order approximations Adjusted profile likelihood Bayesian and likelihood methods Jacobian in likelihood methods GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS Linear models Generalized linear models Model checking Examples QUASI-LIKELIHOOD Examples Iterative weighted least squares Asymptotic inference Dispersion models Extended Quasi-likelihood Joint GLM of mean and dispersion Joint GLMs for quality improvement EXTENDED LIKELIHOOD INFERENCES Two kinds of likelihood Inference about the fixed parameters Inference about the random parameters Optimality in random-parameter estimation Canonical scale, h-likelihood and joint inference Statistical prediction Regression as an extended model Missing or incomplete-data problems Is marginal likelihood enough for inference about fixed parameters? Summary: likelihoods in extended framework NORMAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS Developments of normal mixed linear models Likelihood estimation of fixed parameters Classical estimation of random effects H-likelihood approach Example Invariance and likelihood inference HIERARCHICAL GLMS HGLMs H-likelihood Inferential procedures using h-likelihood Penalized quasi-likelihood Deviances in HGLMs Examples Choice of random-effect scale HGLMS WITH STRUCTURED DISPERSION HGLMs with structured dispersion Quasi-HGLMs Examples CORRELATED RANDOM EFFECTS FOR HGLMS HGLMs with correlated random effects Random effects described by fixed L matrices Random effects described by a covariance matrix Random effects described by a precision matrix Fitting and model-checking Examples Twin and family data Ascertainment problem SMOOTHING Spline models Mixed model framework Automatic smoothing Non-Gaussian smoothing RANDOM-EFFECT MODELS FOR SURVIVAL DATA Proportional-hazard model Frailty models and the associated h-likelihood *Mixed linear models with censoring Extensions Proofs DOUBLE HGLMs DHGLMs Models for finance data H-likelihood procedure for fitting DHGLMs Random effects in the ? component Examples FURTHER TOPICS Model for multivariate responses Joint model for continuous and binary data Joint model for repeated measures and survival time Missing data in longitudinal studies Denoising signals by imputation REFERENCE DATA INDEX AUTHOR INDEX SUBJECT INDEX

Generalized Linear Models with Random Effects: Unified Analysis via H-likelihood

SUMMARY Hierarchical generalised linear models are developed as a synthesis of generalised linear models, mixed linear models and structured dispersions. We generalise the restricted maximum likelihood method for the estimation of dispersion to the wider class and show how the joint fitting of models for mean and dispersion can be expressed by two interconnected generalised linear models. The method allows models with (i) any combination of a generalised linear model distribution for the response with any conjugate distribution for the random effects, (ii) structured dispersion components, (iii) different link and variance functions for the fixed and random effects, and (iv) the use of quasilikelihoods in place of likelihoods for either or both of the mean and dispersion models. Inferences can be made by applying standard procedures, in particular those for model checking, to components of either generalised linear model. We also show by numerical studies that the new method gives an efficient estimation procedure for substantial class of models of practical importance. Likelihood-type inference is extended to this wide class of models in a unified way.

Hierarchical generalised linear models: A synthesis of generalised linear models, random-effect models and structured dispersions

Summary. We propose a class of double hierarchical generalized linear models in which random effects can be specified for both the mean and dispersion. Heteroscedasticity between clusters can be modelled by introducing random effects in the dispersion model, as is heterogeneity between clusters in the mean model. This class will, among other things, enable models with heavy-tailed distributions to be explored, providing robust estimation against outliers. The h-likelihood provides a unified framework for this new class of models and gives a single algorithm for fitting all members of the class. This algorithm does not require quadrature or prior probabilities.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00538.x

Double hierarchical generalized linear models (with discussion)

There has existed controversy about the use of marginal and conditional models, particularly in the analysis of data from longitudinal studies. We show that alleged differences in the behavior of parameters in so-called marginal and conditional models are based on a failure to compare like with like. In particular, these seemingly apparent differences are meaningless because they are mainly caused by preimposed unidentifiable constraints on the random effects in models. We discuss the advantages of conditional models over marginal models. We regard the conditional model as fundamental, from which marginal predictions can be made.

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Youngjo Lee

Papers

Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models

Generalized Linear Models with Random Effects: Unified Analysis via H-likelihood

Hierarchical generalised linear models: A synthesis of generalised linear models, random-effect models and structured dispersions

Double hierarchical generalized linear models (with discussion)

Conditional and Marginal Models: Another View