Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure

TLDR: In this article, the authors focus on the use of ratios as predictors of failure, defined as the inability of a firm to pay its financial obligations as they mature, and demonstrate that a firm is said to have failed when any of the following events have occurred.

Abstract: At the turn of the century, ratio analysis was in its embryonic state. It began with the development of a single ratio, the current ratio,' for a single purpose-the evaluation of credit-worthiness. Today ratio analysis involves the use of several ratios by a variety of users-including credit lenders, credit-rating agencies, investors, and management.2 In spite of the ubiquity of ratios, little effort has been directed toward the formal empirical verification of their usefulness. The usefulness of ratios can only be tested with regard to some particular purpose. The purpose chosen here was the prediction of failure, since ratios are currently in widespread use as predictors of failure. This is not the only possible use of ratios but is a starting point from which to build an empirical verification of ratio analysis. "Failure" is defined as the inability of a firm to pay its financial obligations as they mature. Operationally, a firm is said to have failed when any of the following events have occurred: bankruptcy, bond default, an overdrawn bank account, or nonpayment of a preferred stock dividend.3 A "financial ratio" is a quotient of two numbers, where both num-