Multimodel GCM-RCM Ensemble-Based Projections of Temperature and Precipitation over West Africa for the Early 21st Century
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In this article, the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global GCMs (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs) in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa is analyzed and compared.Abstract:
Reliable climate change scenarios are critical for West Africa, whose economy relies mostly on agriculture and, in this regard, multimodel ensembles are believed to provide the most robust climate change information. Toward this end, we analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs) (for a total of 4 different GCM-RCM pairs) in simulating present day and future climate over West Africa. The results show that the individual RCM members as well as their ensemble employing the same driving fields exhibit different biases and show mixed results in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation of seasonal temperature and precipitation, indicating a substantial sensitivity of RCMs to regional and local processes. These biases are reduced and GCM simulations improved upon by averaging all four RCM simulations, suggesting that multi-model RCM ensembles based on different driving GCMs help to compensate systematic errors from both the nested and the driving models. This confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for improving robustness of climate change projections. Illustrative examples of such ensemble reveal that the western Sahel undergoes substantial drying in future climate projections mostly due to a decrease in peak monsoon rainfall.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value
TL;DR: In this paper, the results of the application of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (COCMO-CLM) over Africa in the context of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa
Emiola Gbobaniyi,Emiola Gbobaniyi,Abdoulaye Sarr,Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,Ismaila Diallo,Christopher Lennard,Alessandro Dosio,Arona Dhiédiou,Andre Kamga,Nana Ama Browne Klutse,Bruce Hewitson,Grigory Nikulin,Benjamin L. Lamptey +12 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the ability of an ensemble of 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in skillfully reproducing key features of present-day precipitation and temperature (1990-2008) over West Africa.
Book ChapterDOI
Climate Change over West Africa: Recent Trends and Future Projections
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,Pinghouinde Michel Nikiema,Peter Gibba,Ibourahima Kebe,Nana Ama Browne Klutse +4 more
TL;DR: In this article, an assessment of the West African climate has been presented based on various data sources (observations and models), along with an extensive review of recent literature including the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models
TL;DR: In this article, an ensemble of climate change projections for Africa has been created by downscaling the simulations of four global climate models (GCMs) by means of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (RCM) (CCLM).
Journal ArticleDOI
What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models
Alessandro Dosio,Richard G. Jones,Richard G. Jones,Christopher Jack,Christopher Lennard,Grigory Nikulin,Bruce Hewitson +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COORDinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that derived from the driving Global Climate Models.
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