Open AccessJournal Article
The Gompertz distribution and its applications.
TLDR
It is found that the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution are fixed constants independent of the two distribution parameters, and this would appear to be the reason for the mixed success writers have experienced fitting the curve to fertility data.Abstract:
In this paper we study the underlying Gompertz distribution and develop formulae for the moments and other characteristics of this useful but apparently unknown distribution. We find that the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution are fixed constants independent of the two distribution parameters and this would appear to be the reason for the mixed success writers have experienced fitting the curve to fertility data. We also show the distribution of the minimum of n independent Gompertz variables all having the same c-parameter is itself a Gompertz variable with the same c-parameter. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA) (EXCERPT)read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods
Heather Booth,Leonie Tickle +1 more
TL;DR: Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed, and methods using two-factor models (age-period or age-cohort) have been most successful, while recent advances have improved the estimation of forecast uncertainty.
Journal ArticleDOI
Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review
TL;DR: Approaches and developments in demographic and population forecasting since 1980 are reviewed, with a focus on the approaches to population forecasting, demographic process forecasting and error estimation.
MORTALITY MODELLING AND FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF METHODS By H. Booth and L. Tickle
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the major developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation, and explanation, and concluded that "expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting, as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative".
Journal ArticleDOI
Ever since gompertz
S. Jay Olshansky,Bruce A. Carnes +1 more
TL;DR: The literature on Gompertz’slaw of mortality is reviewed and the importance of his observations and insights in light of research on aging that has taken place since then is discussed.
Posted Content
Annuity Valuation with Dependent Mortality
TL;DR: In this paper, a broad class of parametric models using a bivariate survivorship function called a copula was discussed and a large insurance company calculated maximum likelihood estimates to calibrate the model.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
On the Nature of the Function Expressive of the Law of Human Mortality, and on a New Mode of Determining the Value of Life Contingencies
TL;DR: The frequent opportunities I have had of receiving pleasure from your writings and conversation, have induced me to prefer offering to the Royal Society through your medium, this Paper on Life Contingencies, which forms part of a continuation of my original paper on the same subject, published among the valuable papers of the Society, as by passing through your hands it may receive the advantage of your judgment.
The age pattern of mortality.
L. Heligman,J. H. Pollard +1 more
TL;DR: A mathematical expression for the graduation of the age pattern of mortality has been of interest since the development of the first life tables by John Graunt (1662) and Edmund Halley (1693) as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The age pattern of mortality
L. Heligman,J. H. Pollard +1 more
TL;DR: A mathematical expression for the graduation of the age pattern of mortality has been of interest since the development of the first life tables by John Graunt (1662) and Edmund Halley (1693) as mentioned in this paper.