N G van Kampen 1981 Amsterdam: North-Holland xiv + 419 pp price Dfl 180 This is a book which, at a lower price, could be expected to become an essential part of the library of every physical scientist concerned with problems involving fluctuations and stochastic processes, as well as those who just enjoy a beautifully written book. It provides an extensive graduate-level introduction which is clear, cautious, interesting and readable.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0031-9112/34/4/040/pdf

Stochastic Processes in Physics and Chemistry

Summary. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods have emerged as the two main tools to sample from high dimensional probability distributions. Although asymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms is ensured under weak assumptions, the performance of these algorithms is unreliable when the proposal distributions that are used to explore the space are poorly chosen and/or if highly correlated variables are updated independently. We show here how it is possible to build efficient high dimensional proposal distributions by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This allows us not only to improve over standard Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes but also to make Bayesian inference feasible for a large class of statistical models where this was not previously so. We demonstrate these algorithms on a non-linear state space model and a Levy-driven stochastic volatility model.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

In the real world, a realistic setting for computer vision or multimedia recognition problems is that we have some classes containing lots of training data and many classes contain a small amount of training data. Therefore, how to use frequent classes to help learning rare classes for which it is harder to collect the training data is an open question. Learning with Shared Information is an emerging topic in machine learning, computer vision and multimedia analysis. There are different level of components that can be shared during concept modeling and machine learning stages, such as sharing generic object parts, sharing attributes, sharing transformations, sharing regularization parameters and sharing training examples, etc. Regarding the specific methods, multi-task learning, transfer learning and deep learning can be seen as using different strategies to share information. These learning with shared information methods are very effective in solving real-world large-scale problems. This special issue aims at gathering the recent advances in learning with shared information methods and their applications in computer vision and multimedia analysis. Both state-of-the-art works, as well as literature reviews, are welcome for submission. Papers addressing interesting real-world computer vision and multimedia applications are especially encouraged. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:  • Multi-task learning or transfer learning for large-scale computer vision and multimedia analysis • Deep learning for large-scale computer vision and multimedia analysis • Multi-modal approach for large-scale computer vision and multimedia analysis • Different sharing strategies, e.g., sharing generic object parts, sharing attributes, sharing transformations, sharing regularization parameters and sharing training examples, • Real-world computer vision and multimedia applications based on learning with shared information, e.g., event detection, object recognition, object detection, action recognition, human head pose estimation, object tracking, location-based services, semantic indexing. • New datasets and metrics to evaluate the benefit of the proposed sharing ability for the specific computer vision or multimedia problem. • Survey papers regarding the topic of learning with shared information.  Authors who are unsure whether their planned submission is in scope may contact the guest editors prior to the submission deadline with an abstract, in order to receive feedback.

IEEE transactions on pattern analysis and machine intelligence

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper, we discuss and apply an ABC method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to estimate parameters of dynamical models. We show that ABC SMC provides information about the inferability of parameters and model sensitivity to changes in parameters, and tends to perform better than other ABC approaches. The algorithm is applied to several well-known biological systems, for which parameters and their credible intervals are inferred. Moreover, we develop ABC SMC as a tool for model selection; given a range of different mathematical descriptions, ABC SMC is able to choose the best model using the standard Bayesian model selection apparatus.

/pdf/approximate-bayesian-computation-scheme-for-parameter-2fv1wot0rh.pdf

Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems

Filtering and smoothing methods are used to produce an accurate estimate of the state of a time-varying system based on multiple observational inputs (data). Interest in these methods has exploded in recent years, with numerous applications emerging in fields such as navigation, aerospace engineering, telecommunications, and medicine. This compact, informal introduction for graduate students and advanced undergraduates presents the current state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing methods in a unified Bayesian framework. Readers learn what non-linear Kalman filters and particle filters are, how they are related, and their relative advantages and disadvantages. They also discover how state-of-the-art Bayesian parameter estimation methods can be combined with state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing algorithms. The book’s practical and algorithmic approach assumes only modest mathematical prerequisites. Examples include MATLAB computations, and the numerous end-of-chapter exercises include computational assignments. MATLAB/GNU Octave source code is available for download at www.cambridge.org/sarkka, promoting hands-on work with the methods.

贝叶斯滤波与平滑 (Bayesian filtering and smoothing)

Computational systems biology is concerned with the development of detailed mechanistic models of biological processes. Such models are often stochastic and analytically intractable, containing uncertain parameters that must be estimated from time course data. In this article, we consider the task of inferring the parameters of a stochastic kinetic model defined as a Markov (jump) process. Inference for the parameters of complex nonlinear multivariate stochastic process models is a challenging problem, but we find here that algorithms based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo turn out to be a very effective computationally intensive approach to the problem. Approximations to the inferential model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are considered, as well as improvements to the inference scheme that exploit the SDE structure. We apply the methodology to a Lotka–Volterra system and a prokaryotic auto-regulatory network.

/pdf/bayesian-parameter-inference-for-stochastic-biochemical-99pq98b49q.pdf

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic biochemical network models using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

http://www.mas.ncl.ac.uk/~nag48/publications/agpaper4.pdf

Bayesian inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusion models observed with error

Summary. This article is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of stochastic rate constants in the context of dynamic models of intracellular processes. The underlying discrete stochastic kinetic model is replaced b ya diffusion approximation (or stochastic differential equation approach) where a white noise term models stochastic behavior and the model is identified using equispaced time course data. The estimation framework involves the introduction of m − 1 latent data points between every pair of observations. MCMC methods are then used to sample the posterior distribution of the latent process and the model parameters. The methodology is applied to the estimation of parameters in a prokaryotic autoregulatory gene network.

/pdf/bayesian-inference-for-stochastic-kinetic-models-using-a-5ehs9od7tc.pdf

Bayesian inference for stochastic kinetic models using a diffusion approximation.

In this paper, we adapt recently developed simulation-based sequential algorithms to the problem concerning the Bayesian analysis of discretely observed diffusion processes. The estimation framework involves the introduction of m?1 latent data points between every pair of observations. Sequential MCMC methods are then used to sample the posterior distribution of the latent data and the model parameters on-line. The method is applied to the estimation of parameters in a simple stochastic volatility model (SV) of the U.S. short-term interest rate. We also provide a simulation study to validate our method, using synthetic data generated by the SV model with parameters calibrated to match weekly observations of the U.S. short-term interest rate.

/pdf/bayesian-sequential-inference-for-nonlinear-multivariate-2292wy0cqx.pdf

Bayesian sequential inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusions

As postgenomic biology becomes more predictive, the ability to infer rate parameters of genetic and biochemical networks will become increasingly important. In this paper, we explore the Bayesian estimation of stochastic kinetic rate constants governing dynamic models of intracellular processes. The underlying model is replaced by a diffusion approximation where a noise term represents intrinsic stochastic behavior and the model is identified using discrete-time (and often incomplete) data that is subject to measurement error. Sequential MCMC methods are then used to sample the model parameters on-line in several data-poor contexts. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to the estimation of parameters in a simple prokaryotic auto-regulatory gene network.

/pdf/bayesian-sequential-inference-for-stochastic-kinetic-3pubueaco6.pdf

Andrew Golightly

Papers

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic biochemical network models using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusion models observed with error

Bayesian inference for stochastic kinetic models using a diffusion approximation.

Bayesian sequential inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusions

Bayesian Sequential Inference for Stochastic Kinetic Biochemical Network Models