Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

We present a set of stylized empirical facts emerging from the statistical analysis of price variations in various types of financial markets. We first discuss some general issues common to all statistical studies of financial time series. Various statistical properties of asset returns are then described: distributional properties, tail properties and extreme fluctuations, pathwise regularity, linear and nonlinear dependence of returns in time and across stocks. Our description emphasizes properties common to a wide variety of markets and instruments. We then show how these statistical properties invalidate many of the common statistical approaches used to study financial data sets and examine some of the statistical problems encountered in each case.

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Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues

This bestselling and thoroughly classroom-tested textbook is a complete resource for finance students. A comprehensive and illustrated discussion of the most common empirical approaches in finance prepares students for using econometrics in practice, while detailed case studies help them understand how the techniques are used in relevant financial contexts. Worked examples from the latest version of the popular statistical software EViews guide students to implement their own models and interpret results. Learning outcomes, key concepts and end-of-chapter review questions (with full solutions online) highlight the main chapter takeaways and allow students to self-assess their understanding. Building on the successful data- and problem-driven approach of previous editions, this third edition has been updated with new data, extensive examples and additional introductory material on mathematics, making the book more accessible to students encountering econometrics for the first time. A companion website, with numerous student and instructor resources, completes the learning package.

Introductory Econometrics for Finance

Preface. Preface to First Edition. 1. Financial Time Series and Their Characteristics. 2. Linear Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. 3. Conditional Heteroscedastic Models. 4. Nonlinear Models and Their Applications. 5. High-Frequency Data Analysis and Market Microstructure. 6. Continuous-Time Models and Their Applications. 7. Extreme Values, Quantile Estimation, and Value at Risk. 8. Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. 9. Principal Component Analysis and Factor Models. 10. Multivariate Volatility Models and Their Applications. 11. State-Space Models and Kalman Filter. 12. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Applications. Index.

http://inis.jinr.ru/sl/M_Mathematics/MV_Probability/MVspf_Stochastics%20in%20finance/Tsay%20Analysis.pdf

Analysis of Financial Time Series

(2002). Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance. Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol. 97, No. 457, pp. 360-360.

Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance

In a (first price) all-pay auction, bidders simultaneously submit bids for an item. All players forfeit their bids, and the high bidder receives the item. This auction is widely used in economics to model rent seeking, RD asymmetric equilibria imply higher expected revenues than the symmetric equilibrium.

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The all-pay auction with complete information

In a (first price) all-pay auction, bidders simultaneously submit bids for an item. All players forfeit their bids, and the high bidder receives the item. This auction is widelly used in economics to model rent seeking, RD asymmetric equilibria imply higher expected revenues than the symmetric Equilibrium.

textNumerous articles have investigated the distribution of share prices, and find that the returns are fat tailed. Nevertheless, there is still controversy about the amount of probability mass in the tails, and hence about the most appropriate distribution to use in modeling returns. This controversy has proven hard to resolve, as the alternatives are non-nested. We employ extreme value theory, focusing exclusively on the larger observations in order to assess the tail shape within a unified framework. We find that at least the first two moments exist. This enables one to generate robust probabilities on large returns, which put the recent stock market swings into historical perspective.

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On the frequency of large stock returns: Putting booms and busts into perspective

textIn a world where a politician can explicitly auction off a prize to the high bidder, the standard auction literature can be used to analyse political behavior. The justice system, however, precludes politicians from explicitly selling the prize to the highest bidder. Thus politicians cannot let it become public knowledge that they are in the business of selling political favors. An institution has emerged in political markets to overcome this constraint which are termed as lobbying. Lobbyists make implicit payments to the politician through campaign contributions. If these up-front payments were rebated to those failing to receive the prize, it would be clear that the politician was selling favors. This article has examined an interesting principle arising in all-pay auctions. This principle states that a politician wishing to maximize political rents may find it in his best interest to exclude certain lobbyists from participating in the lobbying process, particularly lobbyists valuing most the political prize.

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Rigging the lobbying process: An application of the all-pay auction

We propose a semi-parametric method for unconditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametri- cally, while smaller risks are captured by the non-parametric empirical dis- tribution function. A comparison of methods on a portfolio of stock and option returns reveals that at the 5 % level the RiskMetrics analysis is best, but for predictions of low probability worst outcomes, it strongly underpre- dicts the VaR while the semi-parametric method is the most accurate. Valeurs-a-Risque et les rendements extremes RESUME. - Nous presentons une methode semi-parametrique pour evaluer la valeur-a-risque (VaR). Les risques les plus grands sont modeli- ses parametriquement, alors que les petits risques sont approches par la distribution empirique. Une comparaison des methodes sur les rendements d'un portefeuille d'actions et options montre qu'au niveau de confiance de 5 %, la methode proposee par J. P. MORGAN (RiskMetrics) est la meilleure, mais que pour les predictions pour les plus grandes pertes a des bas niveaux de probabilite, la methode semi-parametrique est superieure, la methode RiskMetrics sous-evalue la VaR.

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Casper G. de Vries

Papers

The all-pay auction with complete information

The all-pay auction with complete information

On the frequency of large stock returns: Putting booms and busts into perspective

Rigging the lobbying process: An application of the all-pay auction

Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns