世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

The 2008 crash has left all the established economic doctrines - equilibrium models, real business cycles, disequilibria models - in disarray. Part of the problem is due to Smith’s "veil of ignorance": individuals unknowingly pursue society’s interest and, as a result, have no clue as to the macroeconomic effects of their actions: witness the Keynes and Leontief multipliers, the concept of value added, fiat money, Engel’s law and technical progress, to name but a few of the macrofoundations of microeconomics. A good viewpoint to take bearings anew lies in comparing the post-Great Depression institutions with those emerging from Thatcher and Reagan’s economic policies: deregulation, exogenous vs. endoge- nous money, shadow banking vs. Volcker’s Rule. Very simply, the banks, whose lending determined deposits after Roosevelt, and were a public service became private enterprises whose deposits determine lending. These underlay the great moderation preceding 2006, and the subsequent crash.

The Economic Institutions of Capitalism

The four Visegrad states — Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia (until 1993 Czechoslovakia) and Hungary — form a compact area between Germany and Austria in the west and the states of the former USSR in the east. They are bounded by the Baltic in the north and the Danube river in the south. They are cut by the Sudeten and Carpathian mountain ranges, which divide Poland off from the other states. Poland is an extension of the North European plain and like the latter is drained by rivers that flow from south to north west — the Oder, the Vlatava and the Elbe, the Vistula and the Bug. The Danube is the great exception, flowing from its source eastward, turning through two 90-degree turns to end up in the Black Sea, forming the barrier and often the political frontier between central Europe and the Balkans. Hungary to the east of the Danube is also an open plain. The region is historically and culturally part of western Europe, but its eastern Marches now represents a vital strategic zone between Germany and the core of the European Union to the west and the Russian zone to the east.

Economy and Society

Many growth models assume that aggregate output is generated by a Cobb-Douglas production function. In this article we question the empirical relevance of this specification. We use a panel of 82 countries over a 28-year period to estimate a general constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function specification. We find that for the entire sample of countries we can reject the Cobb-Douglas specification. When we divide our sample of countries up into several subsamples, we find that physical capital and human capital adjusted labor are more substitutable in the richest group of countries and are less substitutable in the poorest group of countries than would be implied by a Cobb-Douglas specification.

/pdf/a-cross-country-empirical-investigation-of-the-aggregate-2sug0ygjaj.pdf

A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification

We examine the relationship between trade and financial globalization and the rise in inequality in most countries in recent decades. We find technological progress as having a greater impact than globalization on inequality. The limited overall impact of globalization reflects two offsetting tendencies: whereas trade globalization is associated with a reduction in inequality, financial globalization - and foreign direct investment in particular - is associated with an increase. A key finding is that both globalization and technological changes increase the returns on human capital, underscoring the importance of education and training in both developed and developing countries in addressing rising inequality.

/pdf/rising-income-inequality-technology-or-trade-and-financial-5dkd0sfbbk.pdf

Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?

The paper examines the relationship between the rapid pace of trade and financial globalization and the rise in income inequality observed in most countries over the past two decades. Using a newly compiled panel of 51 countries over a 23-year period from 1981 to 2003, the paper reports estimates that support a greater impact of technological progress than globalization on inequality. The limited overall impact of globalization reflects two offsetting tendencies: whereas trade globalization is associated with a reduction in inequality, financial globalization—and foreign direct investment in particular—is associated with an increase in inequality.

/pdf/rising-income-inequality-technology-or-trade-and-financial-33o9mgc8oi.pdf

This paper takes a fresh look at Africa's growth experience by using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methodology. BMA enables us to consider a large number of potential explanatory variables and sort out which of these variable can effectively explain Africa's growth experience. Posterior coefficient estimates reveal that key engines of growth in Africa are substantially different from those in the rest of the world. More precisely, it is shown that mining, primary exports and initial primary education exerted differential effect on African growth. These results are examined in relation to the existing literature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

http://chrispapageorgiou.com/papers/Africa.pdf

Rough and Lonely Road to Prosperity: A reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian Model Averaging ∗

Since Griliches (1969), researchers have been intrigued by the idea that physical capital and skilled labor are relatively more complementary than physical capital and unskilled labor. This capital-skill complementarity hypothesis has received renewed attention recently, as researchers have suggested that this phenomenon might account for rising wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in several developed countries. In this paper we consider the cross-country evidence for capital--skill complementarity using a time-series, cross-section panel of 73 developed and less developed countries over a 25 year period. In particular, we focus on three empirical issues. First, what is the best specification of the aggregate production technology to address the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis. Second, how should we measure skilled labor? Finally, is there any cross-country evidence in support of the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis? Our main finding is that we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no capital-skill complementarity using our panel data set.

/pdf/capital-skill-complementarity-evidence-from-a-panel-of-26due1bxn4.pdf

Chris Papageorgiou

Papers

A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification

Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?

Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?

Rough and Lonely Road to Prosperity: A reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian Model Averaging ∗

Capital-skill complementarity? evidence from a panel of countries*