IMF Economic Review 

About: IMF Economic Review is an academic journal published by Springer Science+Business Media. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Capital market & Monetary policy. It has an ISSN identifier of 2041-4161. Over the lifetime, 318 publications have been published receiving 15281 citations. The journal is also known as: International Monetary Fund economic review.

Systemic banking crises database

Abstract: The paper presents a comprehensive database on systemic banking crises during 1970–2011. It proposes a methodology to date banking crises based on policy indices, and examines the robustness of this approach. The paper also presents information on the costs and policy responses associated with banking crises. The database on banking crises episodes is further complemented with dates for sovereign debt and currency crises during the same period. The paper contrasts output losses across different crises and finds that sovereign debt crises tend to be more costly than banking crises, and these in turn tend to be more costly than currency crises. The data also point to significant differences in policy responses between advanced and emerging economies.

Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium

Abstract: European global banks intermediating U.S. dollar funds are important in influencing credit conditions in the United States. U.S. dollar-denominated assets of banks outside the United States are comparable in size to the total assets of the U.S. commercial bank sector, but the large gross cross-border positions are masked by the netting out of the gross assets and liabilities. As a consequence, current account imbalances do not reflect the influence of gross capital flows on U.S. financial conditions. This paper pieces together evidence from a global flow of funds analysis, and develops a theoretical model linking global banks and U.S. loan risk premiums. The culprit for the easy credit conditions in the United States up to 2007 may have been the “Global Banking Glut” rather than the “Global Savings Glut.”

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun

Abstract: One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. The paper finds that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a 40 percent shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, the paper finds that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. It also finds support for compositional effects: sectors with larger reductions in domestic output had larger drops in trade. By contrast, the paper finds no support for the hypothesis that trade credit played a role in the recent trade collapse.

Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons

Abstract: Do external imbalances increase the risk of nancial crises? In this paper, we study the experience of 14 developed countries over 140 years (1870{2008). We exploit our long-run dataset in a number of dierent ways. First, we apply new statistical tools to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of crises and identify ve episodes of global nancial instability in the past 140 years. Second, we study the macroeconomic dynamics before crises and show that credit growth tends to be elevated and natural interest rates depressed in the run-up to global nancial crises. Third, we show that recessions associated with crises lead to deeper slumps and stronger turnarounds in imbalances than during normal recessions. Finally, we ask to what extent external imbalances help predict nancial crises. Our overall result is that credit growth emerges as the single best predictor of nancial instability. External imbalances have played an additional role, but more so in the pre-WWII era of low nancialization than today.

Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?

Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between the rapid pace of trade and financial globalization and the rise in income inequality observed in most countries over the past two decades. Using a newly compiled panel of 51 countries over a 23-year period from 1981 to 2003, the paper reports estimates that support a greater impact of technological progress than globalization on inequality. The limited overall impact of globalization reflects two offsetting tendencies: whereas trade globalization is associated with a reduction in inequality, financial globalization—and foreign direct investment in particular—is associated with an increase in inequality.