We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity.

Active fault database of Turkey

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically
challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated
because of the diﬀerent causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity,
meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami
Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in diﬀerent areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales
with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance
knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding speciﬁc
levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of
time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps
or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms
of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation
mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii)
statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric
uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the
rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications,
including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of
occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017RG000579

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ~20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH>5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH>3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH>1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

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The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

The GEM Global Active Faults Database (GAF-DB) is the first public, comprehensive database of active faults with worldwide coverage. The GAF-DB is a compilation of many regional datasets. The GAF-D...

The GEM Global Active Faults Database

Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These ...

Development of a global seismic risk model

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (
 www.efehr.org
 ).

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Danciu Laurentiu

Papers

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results