计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

The authors examine the implications of electronic shopping for consumers, retailers, and manufacturers. They assume that near-term technological developments will offer consumers unparalleled opportunities to locate and compare product offerings. They examine these advantages as a function of typical consumer goals and the types of products and services being sought and offer conclusions regarding consumer incentives and disincentives to purchase through interactive home shopping vis-à-vis traditional retail formats. The authors discuss implications for industry structure as they pertain to competition among retailers, competition among manufacturers, and retailer-manufacturer relationships.

Interactive home shopping: Consumer, retailer, and manufacturer incentives to participate in

We design experiments to jointly elicit risk and time preferences for the adult Danish population. Since subjects are generally risk averse, we find that joint elicitation provides estimates of discount rates that are significantly lower than those found in previous studies and more in line with what would be considered as a priori reasonable rates. The statistical specification relies on a theoretical framework that involves a latent trade-off between long-run optimization and short-run temptation. Estimation of this specification is undertaken using structural, maximum likelihood methods. Our main results based on exponential discounting are robust to alternative specifications such as hyperbolic discounting. These results have direct implications for attempts to elicit time preferences, as well as debates over the appropriate domain of the utility function when characterizing risk aversion and time consistency.

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Eliciting risk and time preferences.

The present paper explores situations in which the information available to decision makers is limited to feedback concerning the outcomes of their previous decisions. The results reveal that experience in these situations can lead to deviations from maximization in the opposite direction of the deviations observed when the decisions are made based on a description of the choice problem. Experience was found to lead to a reversed common ratio/certainty effect, more risk seeking in the gain than in the loss domain, and to an underweighting of small probabilities. Only one of the examined properties of description-based decisions, loss aversion, seems to emerge robustly in these ‘feedback-based’ decisions. These results are summarized with a simple model that illustrates that all the unique properties of feedback-based decisions can be a product of a tendency to rely on recent outcomes. Copyright # 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Small feedback‐based decisions and their limited correspondence to description‐based decisions

A key open question for theories of reference-dependent preferences is what determines the reference point. One candidate is expectations: what people expect could affect how they feel about what actually occurs. In a real-effort experiment, we manipulate the rational expectations of subjects and check whether this manipulation influences their effort provision. We find that effort provision is significantly different between treatments in the way predicted by models of expectation-based reference-dependent preferences: if expectations are high, subjects work longer and earn more money than if expectations are low.

Reference Points and Effort Provision

Experimental studies of risk and time preference typically focus on one of the two phenomena. The goal of this paper is to investigate the (possible) correlation between subjects’ attitude to risk and their time preference. For this sake we ask 61 subjects to price a simple lottery in three different scenarios. At the first, the lottery premium is paid ‘now’. At the second, it is paid ‘later’. At the third, it is paid ‘even later‘. By comparing the certainty equivalents offered by the subjects for the three lotteries, we test how time and risk preferences are interrelated. Since the time interval between ‘now’ and ‘later’ is the same as between ‘later’ and ‘even later’, we also test the hypothesis of hyperbolic discounting. The main result is a statistically significant negative correlation between subjects’ degrees of risk aversion and their (implicit) discount factors. Moreover, we show that the negative correlation is independent of the method used to elicit certainty equivalents (willingness to pay versus willingness to accept).

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On the Interaction of Risk and Time Preferences: An Experimental Study

We explore the effects of social distance in experiments conducted over the Internet on three continents, in classroom laboratory sessions conducted in Israel and Spain, and in computer sessions pairing participants from different states, one in Texas and the other in California. Our design elicits individual behavior profiles over a range of contingencies, enabling us to identify heterogeneity among our participants. We find that many people show regard for others, even with the apparent social distance inherent with Internet interaction. In all cases, a substantial minority makes choices indicating positive reciprocity; the proportion doing so varies inversely with social distance.

http://www.utdallas.edu/~eharuvy/papers/CharnessHaruvySonsino.pdf?origin=publication_detail

Social distance and reciprocity: An Internet experiment

We study the effect of variation in correlation on investment decision in an experimental two asset application. Comparison of allocations across problems suggests that subjects neglect probabilistic information on the joint distribution of returns and base their allocations on the observed return levels for the two assets. When asked to predict future returns, subjects try to replicate the historical distribution, thereby falling into the probability-matching bias. Predictions drastically vary when correlations become negative, while allocations are not significantly affected by changes in sign of correlation. The observed allocation patterns contradict the predictions of standard models of choice; the inconsistency is attributed to common behavioral bias in financial decision. Field implications of the results are discussed.

The Neglect of Correlation in Allocation Decisions

The paper studies a large class of bounded-rationality, probabilistic learning models on strategic-form games. The main assumption is that players “recognize” cyclic patterns in the observed history of play. The main result is convergence with probability one to a fixed pattern of pure strategy Nash equilibria, in a large class of “simple games” in which the pure equilibria are nicely spread along the lattice of the game. We also prove that a necessary condition for convergence of behavior to a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is that the players consider arbitrarily long histories when forming their predictions.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C72, D83.

/pdf/learning-to-learn-pattern-recognition-and-nash-equilibrium-47vvuo4jam.pdf

Doron Sonsino

Papers

On the Interaction of Risk and Time Preferences: An Experimental Study

Social distance and reciprocity: An Internet experiment

The Neglect of Correlation in Allocation Decisions

Learning to learn, pattern recognition, and Nash equilibrium

A comparative study of lotteries-evaluation in class and on the Web