Avian influenza virus (AIV) persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2–4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host–pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size). Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2–4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year) are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.

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The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.

In this paper, the conditions for identifiability, separability and uniqueness of linear complex valued independent component analysis (ICA) models are established. These results extend the well-known conditions for solving real-valued ICA problems to complex-valued models. Relevant properties of complex random vectors are described in order to extend the Darmois-Skitovich theorem for complex-valued models. This theorem is used to construct a proof of a theorem for each of the above ICA model concepts. Both circular and noncircular complex random vectors are covered. Examples clarifying the above concepts are presented

Complex random vectors and ICA models: identifiability, uniqueness, and separability

In this article and its sequel, we derive Bayesianism from the following norm: Accuracy—an agent ought to minimize the inaccuracy of her partial beliefs. In this article, we make this norm mathematically precise. We describe epistemic dilemmas an agent might face if she attempts to follow Accuracy and show that the only measures of inaccuracy that do not create these dilemmas are the quadratic inaccuracy measures. In the sequel, we derive Bayesianism from Accuracy and show that Jeffrey Conditionalization violates Accuracy unless Rigidity is assumed. We describe the alternative updating rule that Accuracy mandates in the absence of Rigidity.

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An Objective Justification of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy

To address the plurality of interpretations of the subjective notion of risk, we describe it by means of a risk order and concentrate on the context invariant features of diversification and monotonicity. Our main results are uniquely characterized robust representations of lower semicontinuous risk orders on vector spaces and convex sets. This representation covers most instruments related to risk and allow for a differentiated interpretation depending on the underlying context which is illustrated in different settings: For random variables, risk perception can be interpreted as model risk, and we compute among others the robust representation of the economic index of riskiness. For lotteries, risk perception can be viewed as distributional risk and we study the "Value at Risk''. For consumption patterns, which excerpt an intertemporality dimension in risk perception, we provide an interpretation in terms of discounting risk and discuss some examples.

Risk Preferences and their Robust Representation

When there is uncertainty about interest rates (typically due to either illiquidity or defaultability of zero coupon bonds) the cash-additivity assumption on risk measures becomes problematic. When this assumption is weakened, to cash-subadditivity for example, the equivalence between convexity and the diversification principle no longer holds. In fact, this principle only implies (and it is implied by) quasiconvexity. For this reason, in this paper quasiconvex risk measures are studied. We provide a dual characterization of quasiconvex cash-subadditive risk measures and we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for their law invariance. As a byproduct, we obtain an alternative characterization of the actuarial mean value premium principle.

Z. Maguar

Papers

Functional equations in several variables