Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model
TLDR
The flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading.About:
This article is published in Journal of Computational Science.The article was published on 2010-08-01 and is currently open access. It has received 454 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Computational epidemiology.read more
Citations
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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Matteo Chinazzi,Jessica T. Davis,Marco Ajelli,Corrado Gioannini,Maria Litvinova,Stefano Merler,Ana Pastore y Piontti,Kunpeng Mu,Luca Rossi,Kaiyuan Sun,Cécile Viboud,Xinyue Xiong,Hongjie Yu,M. Elizabeth Halloran,M. Elizabeth Halloran,Ira M. Longini,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani +17 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
Journal ArticleDOI
The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena.
TL;DR: It is shown that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance, in the context of global, air-traffic–mediated epidemics.
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Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures.
Marino Gatto,Enrico Bertuzzo,Lorenzo Mari,Stefano Miccoli,Luca Carraro,Renato Casagrandi,Andrea Rinaldo +6 more
TL;DR: Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, it is concluded that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
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Human mobility: Models and applications
Hugo Barbosa,Marc Barthelemy,Gourab Ghoshal,Charlotte R James,Maxime Lenormand,Thomas Louail,Ronaldo Menezes,José J. Ramasco,Filippo Simini,Marcello Tomasini +9 more
TL;DR: This survey reviews the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments, and organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility.
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Geo-located Twitter as proxy for global mobility patterns
Bartosz Hawelka,Izabela Sitko,Euro Beinat,Stanislav Sobolevsky,Pavlos Kazakopoulos,Carlo Ratti +5 more
TL;DR: This article analyses geo-located Twitter messages in order to uncover global patterns of human mobility and reveals spatially cohesive regions that follow the regional division of the world.
References
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On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
TL;DR: It is shown that in certain special cases one can easily compute or estimate the expected number of secondary cases produced by a typical infected individual during its entire period of infectiousness in a completely susceptible population.
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The architecture of complex weighted networks
TL;DR: This work studies the scientific collaboration network and the world-wide air-transportation network, which are representative examples of social and large infrastructure systems, respectively, and defines appropriate metrics combining weighted and topological observables that enable it to characterize the complex statistical properties and heterogeneity of the actual strength of edges and vertices.
On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio : $R_ 0$ in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
TL;DR: In this paper, the expected number of secondary cases produced by a typical infected individual during its entire period of infectiousness in a completely susceptible population is defined as the dominant eigenvalue of a positive linear operator.
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Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
Neil M. Ferguson,Derek A. T. Cummings,Christophe Fraser,James Cajka,Philip C. Cooley,Donald S. Burke +5 more
TL;DR: It is found that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective, and vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy.
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Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks.
Stephen Eubank,Hasan Guclu,V. S. Anil Kumar,Madhav V. Marathe,Aravind Srinivasan,Zoltán Toroczkai,Nan Wang +6 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.
Related Papers (5)
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Matteo Chinazzi,Jessica T. Davis,Marco Ajelli,Corrado Gioannini,Maria Litvinova,Stefano Merler,Ana Pastore y Piontti,Kunpeng Mu,Luca Rossi,Kaiyuan Sun,Cécile Viboud,Xinyue Xiong,Hongjie Yu,M. Elizabeth Halloran,M. Elizabeth Halloran,Ira M. Longini,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani +17 more