Journal ArticleDOI
Regional PV power prediction for improved grid integration
Elke Lorenz,Thomas Scheidsteger,Johannes Hurka,Detlev Heinemann,Christian Kurz +4 more
- Vol. 19, Iss: 7, pp 757-771
TLDR
A modified up-scaling approach is introduced, modelling the spatial distribution of the nominal power with a resolution of 1° × 1°, which is based on forecasts of the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF).Abstract:
The contribution of power production from PV systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production, as a basis for management of the electricity grids and trading on the energy market. We present and evaluate the regional PV power prediction system of University of Oldenburg and Meteocontrol GmbH providing forecasts of up to 2 days ahead with hourly resolution. The proposed approach is based on forecasts of the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). It includes a post-processing procedure to derive optimised, site-specific irradiance forecasts and explicit physical modelling steps to convert the predicted irradiances to PV power. Finally, regional power forecasts are derived by up-scaling from a representative set of PV systems. The investigation of proper up-scaling is a special focus of this paper. We introduce a modified up-scaling approach, modelling the spatial distribution of the nominal power with a resolution of 1° × 1°. The operational PV power prediction system is evaluated in comparison to the modified up-scaling approach for the control areas of the two German transmission system operators ‘transpower’ and ‘50 Hertz’ for the period 2.7.2009–30.4.2010. rmse values of the operational forecasts are in the range of 4–5% with respect to the nominal power for intra-day and day-ahead forecast horizons. Further improvement is achieved with the modified up-scaling approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power, considering both supply and demand side measures.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of photovoltaic power forecasting
J. Antonanzas,Natalia Osorio,Rodrigo Escobar,Ruben Urraca,Francisco Javier Martinez-de-Pison,F. Antonanzas-Torres +5 more
TL;DR: This paper appears with the aim of compiling a large part of the knowledge about solar power forecasting, focusing on the latest advancements and future trends, and represents the most up-to-date compilation of solarPower forecasting studies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the theory behind these forecasting methodologies, and a number of successful applications of solar forecasting methods for both the solar resource and the power output of solar plants at the utility scale level.
Journal ArticleDOI
Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond
TL;DR: This paper introduces the GEFCom2014, a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries and concludes with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an in-depth review of the current methods used to forecast solar irradiance in order to facilitate selection of the appropriate forecast method according to needs.
References
More filters
BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI
A new simplified version of the perez diffuse irradiance model for tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this article, a simplified version of the Perez[1] diffuse irradiance model is presented, which is one of those used currently to estimate short time step (hourly or less) irradiance on tilted planes based on global and direct (or diffuse) irradiances.
Journal ArticleDOI
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems
TL;DR: An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Online short-term solar power forecasting
TL;DR: In this paper, a two-stage method is proposed to forecast hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 hours ahead, the most important input is the available observations of PV power, while for longer horizons numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are the more important input.
Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting
TL;DR: The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h, where the results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations ofSolar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are theMost important input.