Journal ArticleDOI
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems
TLDR
An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.Abstract:
The contribution of power production by photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Focus of the paper is the description and evaluation of the approach of irradiance forecasting, which is the basis for PV power prediction. One day-ahead irradiance forecasts for single stations in Germany show a rRMSE of 36%. For regional forecasts, forecast accuracy is increasing in dependency on the size of the region. For the complete area of Germany, the rRMSE amounts to 13%. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification of the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective application. We present and evaluate an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts. The accuracy of PV power prediction is investigated in a case study.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the theory behind these forecasting methodologies, and a number of successful applications of solar forecasting methods for both the solar resource and the power output of solar plants at the utility scale level.
BookDOI
Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future
TL;DR: The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) as mentioned in this paper brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options.
Journal ArticleDOI
Online short-term solar power forecasting
TL;DR: In this paper, a two-stage method is proposed to forecast hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 hours ahead, the most important input is the available observations of PV power, while for longer horizons numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are the more important input.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an in-depth review of the current methods used to forecast solar irradiance in order to facilitate selection of the appropriate forecast method according to needs.
Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting
TL;DR: The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h, where the results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations ofSolar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are theMost important input.
References
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BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Book
Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed exposition of statistical intervals and emphasizes applications in industry is presented. But the discussion differentiates at an elementary level among different kinds of statistical interval and gives instruction with numerous examples and simple math on how to construct such intervals from sample data, including confidence intervals to contain a population percentile, confidence intervals on probability of meeting specified threshold value and prediction intervals to include observation in a future sample.
Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces.