Journal ArticleDOI
The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction.
Keith Beven,Andrew Binley +1 more
TLDR
The GLUE procedure works with multiple sets of parameter values and allows that, within the limitations of a given model structure and errors in boundary conditions and field observations, different sets of values may be equally likely as simulators of a catchment.Abstract:
This paper describes a methodology for calibration and uncertainty estimation of distributed models based on generalized likelihood measures. The GLUE procedure works with multiple sets of parameter values and allows that, within the limitations of a given model structure and errors in boundary conditions and field observations, different sets of values may be equally likely as simulators of a catchment. Procedures for incorporating different types of observations into the calibration; Bayesian updating of likelihood values and evaluating the value of additional observations to the calibration process are described. The procedure is computationally intensive but has been implemented on a local parallel processing computer.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling
TL;DR: A diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE is presented, which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and it is shown how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components.
Book
Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a method for sensitivity analysis of a fish population model using Monte Carlo filtering and variance-based methods, which is based on the Bayesian uncertainty estimation.
Journal ArticleDOI
A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
TL;DR: The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto.
Journal ArticleDOI
Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology
Keith Beven,Jim Freer +1 more
TL;DR: The generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology for model identification allowing for equifinality is described, and an example application to rainfall-runoff modelling is used to illustrate the methodology, including the updating of likelihood measures.
Journal ArticleDOI
Status of Automatic Calibration for Hydrologic Models: Comparison with Multilevel Expert Calibration
TL;DR: The capability of the shuffled complex evolution automatic procedure is compared with the interactive multilevel calibration multistage semiautomated method developed for calibration of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting streamflow forecasting model of the U.S. National Weather Service and suggests that the state of the art in automatic calibration now can be expounded.
References
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Book
Bayesian inference in statistical analysis
George E. P. Box,George C. Tiao +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of non-normality on inference about a population mean with generalizations was investigated. But the authors focused on the effect on the mean with information from more than one source.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis
Journal ArticleDOI
On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors define the center of location as the abscissa of a frequency curve for which the sampling errors of optimum location are uncorrelated with those of optimum scaling.
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Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information
George J. Klir,Tina A. Folger +1 more
TL;DR: The fuzzy sets uncertainty and information is one book that the authors really recommend you to read, to get more solutions in solving this problem.
Journal ArticleDOI
Empirical equations for some soil hydraulic properties
R. B. Clapp,George M. Hornberger +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a power function relating soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity is used to derive a formula for the wetting front suction required by the Green-Ampt equation.
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Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology
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