The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species

/pdf/rapid-range-shifts-of-species-associated-with-high-levels-of-249w1ca3i9.pdf

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review

Plants are finely tuned to the seasonality of their environment, and shifts in the timing of plant activity (i.e. phenology) provide some of the most compelling evidence that species and ecosystems are being influenced by global environmental change. Researchers across disciplines have observed shifting phenology at multiple scales, including earlier spring flowering in individual plants and an earlier spring green-up' of the land surface revealed in satellite images. Experimental and modeling approaches have sought to identify the mechanisms causing these shifts, as well as to make predictions regarding the consequences. Here, we discuss recent advances in several fields that have enabled scaling between species responses to recent climatic changes and shifts in ecosystem productivity, with implications for global carbon cycling.

https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/pdf/S0169-5347(07)00130-9.pdf

Shifting plant phenology in response to global change

Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.

Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.

/pdf/community-and-ecosystem-responses-to-recent-climate-change-2dpsvxodvy.pdf

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change.

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

/pdf/european-phenological-response-to-climate-change-matches-the-3dr30qvjfp.pdf

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Abstract Information on the allergenic pollen season provides insight on the state of the environment of a region and facilitates allergy symptom management. We present a retrospective analysis of the duration and severity of the allergenic pollen season and the role of meteorological factors in Istanbul, Turkey. Aerobiological sampling from January 2013 to June 2016, pollen identification and counting followed current standard methodology. Pollen seasons were defined according to 95% of the Annual Pollen Integral (APIn) and the season start date was compared with the first day of 5 day consecutive non-zero records. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were created to study the effect of meteorological factors on flowering. The main pollen contributors were taxa of temperate and Mediterranean climates, and neophytic Ambrosia . Cupressaceae, Poaceae, Pinaceae, Quercus and Ambrosia had the greatest relative abundance. The pollen season defined on 95% of the APIn was adequate for our location with total APIns around 10.000 pollen*day*m −3 . Woody taxa had generally shorter seasons than herbaceous taxa. In trees, we see precipitation as the main limiting factor for assimilate production prior to anthesis. A severe tree pollen season in 2016 suggests intense synchronous flowering across taxa and populations triggered by favourable water supply in the preceding year. GAM models can explain the effect of weather on pollen concentrations during anthesis. Under the climatic conditions over the study period, temperature had a negative effect on spring flowering trees, and a positive one on summer flowering weeds. Humidity, atmospheric pressure and precipitation had a negative effect on weeds. Our findings contribute to environmental and allergological knowledge in southern Europe and Turkey with relevancy in the assessment of impacts of climate change and the management of allergic disease. 

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10453-022-09742-x.pdf

Åslög Dahl

Papers

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

The duration and severity of the allergenic pollen season in Istanbul, and the role of meteorological factors