世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

On behalf of Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, it is my great pleasure to welcome you all to this international scientific conference. Drylands are often considered fragile ecosystems, yet they have a remarkable resilience to stress. They are home to unique and well-adapted plant and animal species that we need to conserve. Some of the world’s greatest cultures and belief systems have originated in drylands. On the other hand, desertification and land degradation in drylands often result in poverty and cause environmental refugees to abandon their homes. These problems can only be addressed in a holistic manner, based on sound scientific research and findings. Solutions to the problems of dryland degradation need to be communicated as widely as possible through education at all levels. These are many reasons why UNESCO – within its mandate of science, education, culture and communication – took the intiative to organize this conference. And we are glad that so many partners have responded to our call. UNESCO considers this conference as its main contribution to the observance of the International Year of Deserts and Desertification in 2006. We have deliberately chosen the title ‘The Future of Drylands’ as we feel it is time to redefine our priorities for science, education and governance in the drylands based on 50 years of scientific research in arid and semi-arid zones. In fact UNESCO has one of the longest traditions, within the UN system, of addressing dryland problems from an interdisciplinary, scientific point of view. In 1955, the ‘International Arid Land Meetings’ were held in Socorro, New Mexico (USA). They were organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), sponsored by UNESCO and supported by the Rockefeller Foundation. One important output of the International Arid Land Meetings was a book entitled The Future of Drylands, edited by Gilbert F. White and published in

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

This article offers an alternative to the traditional dualistic view of the relationship between formal and informal labor markets. For many workers inefficiencies in formal sector protections and low levels of labor productivity may make informal sector employment a desirable alternative to formal sector employment. The analysis offers the first study of worker transitions between sectors using detailed panel data from Mexico and finds little evidence in favor of the dualistic view. Traditional earnings differentials cannot prove or disprove segmentation in the developing-country context. The patterns of worker mobility do not suggest a rigid labor market or one segmented along the formal and informal division.

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Does Informality Imply Segmentation in Urban Labor Markets? Evidence from Sectoral Transitions in Mexico

Milagros Nores, Assistant Research Professor, National Institute for Early Education Research, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey (NJ, United States). Email: mnores@nieer.org Address: 57 US Highway 1, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8554, United States.W. Steven Barnett, Board of Governors Professor and Director of the National Institute for Early Education Research, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey (NJ, United States). Email: wbarnet@rci.rutgers.edu Address: 57 US Highway 1, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8554, United States.This paper uses a meta-analysis to review the evidence on the benefits of early childhood interventions. The authors also analyze how the revealed effects are correlated with characteristics of the corrective measures and with the target audience.A total of 38 contrasts of 30 interventions in 23 countries were analyzed. The paper focuses on studies applying a quasi-experimental or random assignment. Studies were coded according to: the type of intervention (cash transfer, nutritional, educational or mixed); sample size; study design and duration; country; target group (infants, prekindergarten); subpopulations of interventions; and dosage of intervention. Cohen’s D effect sizes were calculated for four outcomes: cognitive gains; behavioral change; health gains; and amount of schooling.A moderate progress has been revealed in each of the outcomes. The benefits are sustained over time. Interventions that have an educational or mixed (educational and stimulation, or care) component evidenced the largest cognitive effects, as compared to cash infusions or nutrition-specific interventions. We find children from different context and countries receive substantial cognitive, behavioral, health and schooling benefits from early childhood interventions, unlike children whose development is not supported or promoted. Direct care and education appear to be the most efficient interventions, especially for development of cognitive skills in early childhood.DOI: 10.17323/1814-9545-2012-1-200-228

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Benefits of Early Childhood Interventions Across the World: (Under) Investing in the Very Young

This paper is an empirical investigation of inequality of education opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We use student scores from tests administered by the international consortium Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) for a number of MENA countries and over time since 1999 to estimate the effect of circumstances children are born into on their academic achievement in science and mathematics. We find that inequality of opportunities explains a significant part of the inequality in educational achievements in most MENA countries, but there is ample heterogeneity. Family background variables are the most important determinants of inequality in achievement, followed by community characteristics. The results show that, despite great efforts in past decades to invest in free public education, most MENA countries are less opportunity equal in educational achievement than European countries, and several are less so than Latin America and the United States. From the variation in inequality of education opportunities across countries and over time we draw lessons on the influence of different education systems or changes in policy on equality of opportunity.

Equality of opportunity in educational achievement in the Middle East and North Africa

Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market and this survey integrates them in a coherent framework.

Models of the Oil Market

Despite nearly three decades of revolutionary government rule, poverty and inequality remain the central issues of political debate in Iran. The unexpected electoral victory of Ahmadinejad, the populist candidate in the 2005 presidential election, has been widely attributed to rising poverty and inequity. Using household survey data, I examine the trends in poverty and inequality for the last three decades and show that this thesis is not grounded in facts. Survey data show that poverty has substantially declined in recent years, and is low by international standards and in comparison with pre-revolution years. This finding is consistent with pro-poor policies of the Islamic government, mainly in provision of basic infrastructure such as electricity, safe drinking water, and health. However, the same policies have not been as effective in reducing inequality, which, after an initial decline following the Revolution, has remained basically constant in the post-Revolution period.

Poverty, inequality, and populist politics in Iran

This paper suggests an explanation of the wage and productivity differentials between formal and informal sectors in developing countries. This explanation is based on differences in the observability of effort that arise from technological differences (such as size of operation). The authors argue that observability of effort is lower in the formal sector and then show that, under reasonable conditions, this leads to higher wages and higher effort (productivity). This is because with lower observability the marginal cost of effort is lower when existing employees are induced to work harder than when more workers are hired. Explanations for intersectoral differences in factor intensities and sector-specific unemployment rates also follow from the authors' basic assumptions. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

Effort Observability and Worker Productivity: Towards an Explanation of Economic Dualism

This paper presents a comparative study of private returns to schooling of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey using similar survey data and a uniform methodology. We employ three surveys for each country that span nearly two decades, from the 1980s to 2006, and, to increase the comparability of the estimates across surveys, we focus on urban men 20–54 years old and in full time wage and salary employment. Our aim is to learn how the monetary signals of rewards that guide individual decisions to invest in education are shaped by the institutions of education and labor markets in these countries. Our estimates generally support the stylized facts of the institutions of education and labor markets in Middle Eastern countries. Their labor markets have been described as dominated by the public sector and therefore relatively inflexible, and their education systems as more focused on secondary and tertiary degrees than teaching practical and productive skills. Returns in all countries are increasing in years ...

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

Papers

Equality of opportunity in educational achievement in the Middle East and North Africa

Models of the Oil Market

Poverty, inequality, and populist politics in Iran

Effort Observability and Worker Productivity: Towards an Explanation of Economic Dualism

A comparative study of returns to education of urban men in egypt, iran, and turkey