. Since December 2010, the MyOcean global analysis and forecasting system has consisted of the Mercator Ocean NEMO global 1/4° configuration with a 1/12° nested model over the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. The open boundary data for the nested configuration come from the global 1/4° configuration at 20° S and 80° N. The data are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3-D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. A 3-D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. Altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. In addition to the quality control performed by data producers, the system carries out a proper quality control on temperature and salinity vertical profiles in order to minimise the risk of erroneous observed profiles being assimilated in the model. This paper describes the recent systems used by Mercator Ocean and the validation procedure applied to current MyOcean systems as well as systems under development. The paper shows how refinements or adjustments to the system during the validation procedure affect its quality. Additionally, we show that quality checks (in situ, drifters) and data sources (satellite sea surface temperature) have as great an impact as the system design (model physics and assimilation parameters). The results of the scientific assessment are illustrated with diagnostics over the year 2010 mainly, assorted with time series over the 2007–2011 period. The validation procedure demonstrates the accuracy of MyOcean global products, whose quality is stable over time. All monitoring systems are close to altimetric observations with a forecast RMS difference of 7 cm. The update of the mean dynamic topography corrects local biases in the Indonesian Throughflow and in the western tropical Pacific. This improves also the subsurface currents at the Equator. The global systems give an accurate description of water masses almost everywhere. Between 0 and 500 m, departures from in situ observations rarely exceed 1 °C and 0.2 psu. The assimilation of an improved sea surface temperature product aims to better represent the sea ice concentration and the sea ice edge. The systems under development are still suffering from a drift which can only be detected by means of a 5-yr hindcast, preventing us from upgrading them in real time. This emphasizes the need to pursue research while building future systems for MyOcean2 forecasting.

/pdf/evaluation-of-global-monitoring-and-forecasting-systems-at-55d2ugxkby.pdf

Evaluation of global monitoring and forecasting systems at Mercator Océan

. Since the mid-1990s, a series of FES (finite element solution) global ocean
tidal atlases has been produced and released with the primary objective to
provide altimetry missions with tidal de-aliasing correction at the best
possible accuracy. We describe the underlying hydrodynamic and data
assimilation design and accuracy assessments for the latest FES2014 release
(finalized in early 2016), especially for the altimetry de-aliasing
purposes. The FES2014 atlas shows extremely significant improvements
compared to the standard FES2004 and (intermediary) FES2012 atlases, in all
ocean compartments, especially in shelf and coastal seas, thanks to the
unstructured grid flexible resolution, recent progress in the (prior to
assimilation) hydrodynamic tidal solutions, and use of ensemble data
assimilation technique. Compared to earlier releases, the available tidal
constituent's spectrum has been significantly extended, the overall
resolution has been augmented, and additional scientific byproducts such as loading
and self-attraction, energy diagnostics, or lowest astronomical tides have
been derived from the atlas and are available. Compared to the other
available global ocean tidal atlases, FES2014 clearly shows improved
de-aliasing performance in most of the global ocean areas and has
consequently been integrated in satellite altimetry geophysical data records
(GDRs) and gravimetric data processing and adopted in recently renewed ITRF
standards (International Terrestrial Reference System, 2020). It also
provides very accurate open-boundary tidal conditions for regional and
coastal modelling.

/pdf/fes2014-global-ocean-tide-atlas-design-and-performance-16uk5tjjvn.pdf

FES2014 global ocean tide atlas: design and performance

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Ocean State Report (OSR) provides an annual report of the state of the global ocean and European regional seas for policy and decision-makers with the additional aim of increasing general public awareness about the status of, and changes in, the marine environment. The CMEMS OSR draws on expert analysis and provides a 3-D view (through reanalysis systems), a view from above (through remote-sensing data) and a direct view of the interior (through in situ measurements) of the global ocean and the European regional seas. The report is based on the unique CMEMS monitoring capabilities of the blue (hydrography, currents), white (sea ice) and green (e.g. Chlorophyll) marine environment. This first issue of the CMEMS OSR provides guidance on Essential Variables, large-scale changes and specific events related to the physical ocean state over the period 1993–2015. Principal findings of this first CMEMS OSR show a significant increase in global and regional sea levels, thermosteric expansion, ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent and conversely a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent during the 1993–2015 period. During the year 2015 exceptionally strong large-scale changes were monitored such as, for example, a strong El Nino Southern Oscillation, a high frequency of extreme storms and sea level events in specific regions in addition to areas of high sea level and harmful algae blooms. At the same time, some areas in the Arctic Ocean experienced exceptionally low sea ice extent and temperatures below average were observed in the North Atlantic Ocean.

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report

Academic, government, and private organizations from around the globe have established High Frequency radar (hereinafter, HFR) networks at regional or national levels. Partnerships have been established to coordinate and collaborate on a single global HFR network (http://global-hfradar.org/ ). These partnerships were established in 2012 as part of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to promote HFR technology and increase data sharing among operators and users. The main product of HFR networks are continuous maps of ocean surface currents within 200 km of the coast at high spatial (1-6 km) and temporal resolution (hourly or higher). Cutting-edge remote sensing technologies are becoming a standard component for ocean observing systems, contributing to the paradigm shift towards ocean monitoring. In 2017 the Global HFR Network was recognized by the Joint Technical WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) as an observing network of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). In this paper we will discuss the development of the network as well as establishing goals for the future. The U.S. High Frequency Radar Network (HFRNet) has been in operation for over thirteen years, with radar data being ingested from 31 organizations including measurements from Canada and Mexico. HFRNet currently holds a collection from over 150 radar installations totaling millions of records of surface ocean velocity measurements. During the past 10 years in Europe, HFR networks have been showing steady growth with over 60 stations currently deployed and many in the planning stage. In Asia and Oceania countries, more than 110 radar stations are in operation. HFR technology can be found in a wide range of applications: for marine safety, oil spill response, tsunami warning, pollution assessment, coastal zone management, tracking environmental change, numerical model simulation of 3-dimensional circulation, and research to generate new understanding of coastal ocean dynamics, depending mainly on each country’s coastal sea characteristics. These radar networks are examples of national inter-agency and inter-institutional partnerships for improving oceanographic research and operations. As global partnerships grow, these collaborations and improved data sharing enhances our ability to respond to regional, national, and global environmental and management issues.

/pdf/the-global-high-frequency-radar-network-1lm62cjb9b.pdf

The Global High Frequency Radar Network

. Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape. We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1∕12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1∕4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1∕12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only  ∼  8 % of regions We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1∕12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-e vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones. To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1∕4° global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5 km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1∕72° global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1∕12° global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1° global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conclude that for computationally expensive models (e.g. for oceanographic research or operational oceanography), resolving scales to  ∼  1.5 km would be routinely practical in about a decade given substantial effort on numerical and computational development. For complex Earth system models, this extends to about 2 decades, suggesting the focus here needs to be on improved process parameterisation to meet these challenges.

/pdf/prospects-for-improving-the-representation-of-coastal-and-3plpc2keit.pdf

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

The MyOcean IBI-MFC (Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing continuous daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) regional seas since 2011 The operational IBI Ocean Forecast Service is based on a NEMO model application that includes high-frequency processes required to characterize regional scale marine processes Since June 2014, a new IBI reanalysis, comprising both physical and biogeochemical components, covering the time period 2002–2012 has also been available This paper provides an end-to-end description of these IBI model systems and presents a summary of the scientific validation assessments carried out with the derived operational products The validation statistics suggest that the systems capture major synoptic and mesoscale ocean circulation features observed in the IBI region Finally, an IBI roadmap towards the future EU Copernicus Service is outlined, providing a look ahead to future IBI model and data-assimilation developments and operation

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1014663

The MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: operational products and roadmap to the future Copernicus Service

. This work describes the design and validation of a high-resolution (1/36°) ocean forecasting model over the "Iberian–Biscay–Irish" (IBI) area. The system has been set-up using the NEMO model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). New developments have been incorporated in NEMO to make it suitable to open- as well as coastal-ocean modelling. In this paper, we pursue three main objectives: (1) to give an overview of the model configuration used for the simulations; (2) to give a broad-brush account of one particular aspect of this work, namely consistency verification; this type of validation is conducted upstream of the implementation of the system before it is used for production and routinely validated; it is meant to guide model development in identifying gross deficiencies in the modelling of several key physical processes; and (3) to show that such a regional modelling system has potential as a complement to patchy observations (an integrated approach) to give information on non-observed physical quantities and to provide links between observations by identifying broader-scale patterns and processes. We concentrate on the year 2008. We first provide domain-wide consistency verification results in terms of barotropic tides, transports, sea surface temperature and stratification. We then focus on two dynamical subregions: the Celtic shelves and the Bay of Biscay slope and deep regions. The model–data consistency is checked for variables and processes such as tidal currents, tidal fronts, internal tides and residual elevation. We also examine the representation in the model of a seasonal pattern of the Bay of Biscay circulation: the warm extension of the Iberian Poleward Current along the northern Spanish coast (Navidad event) in the winter of 2007–2008.

/pdf/nemo-on-the-shelf-assessment-of-the-iberia-biscay-ireland-1fgywp18bm.pdf

NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland configuration

Strengths and weaknesses of the CMEMS forecasted and reanalyzed solutions for the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) waters

. The regional ocean operational system remains a key element in downscaling from large scale (global or basin scale) systems to coastal ones. It enables the transition between systems in which the resolution and the resolved physics are quite different. Indeed, coastal applications need a system to predict local high frequency events (inferior to the day) such as storm surges, while deep sea applications need a system to predict large scale lower frequency ocean features. In the framework of the ECOOP project, a regional system for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area has been upgraded from an existing V0 version to a V2. This paper focuses on the improvements from the V1 system, for which the physics are close to a large scale basin system, to the V2 for which the physics are more adapted to shelf and coastal issues. Strong developments such as higher regional physics resolution in the NEMO Ocean General Circulation Model for tides, non linear free surface and adapted vertical mixing schemes among others have been implemented in the V2 version. Thus, regional thermal fronts due to tidal mixing now appear in the latest version solution and are quite well positioned. Moreover, simulation of the stratification in shelf areas is also improved in the V2.

/pdf/towards-a-regional-ocean-forecasting-system-for-the-ibi-3re2pf11vx.pdf

S. Cailleau

Papers

The MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: operational products and roadmap to the future Copernicus Service

NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland configuration

Strengths and weaknesses of the CMEMS forecasted and reanalyzed solutions for the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) waters

Towards a regional ocean forecasting system for the IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area): developments and improvements within the ECOOP project framework