Journal ArticleDOI
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems
TLDR
An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.Abstract:
The contribution of power production by photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Focus of the paper is the description and evaluation of the approach of irradiance forecasting, which is the basis for PV power prediction. One day-ahead irradiance forecasts for single stations in Germany show a rRMSE of 36%. For regional forecasts, forecast accuracy is increasing in dependency on the size of the region. For the complete area of Germany, the rRMSE amounts to 13%. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification of the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective application. We present and evaluate an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts. The accuracy of PV power prediction is investigated in a case study.read more
Citations
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Proceedings ArticleDOI
Multi-time Scale Active and Reactive Power Coordinated Dispatch on Distribution Network with Distributed Generators
TL;DR: A multi-time scale active and reactive power coordinated dispatch method is proposed to cope with the fluctuating power caused by distributed generators in the distribution network, and the operational cost is minimized and the power fluctuation caused by DG to the main grid is reduced.
Journal ArticleDOI
Updated GOES-13 Heliosat-2 Method for Global Horizontal Irradiation in the Americas
Jessica Bechet,Tommy Albarelo,Jérémy Macaire,M. Salloum,Sara Zermani,Antoine Primerose,Laurent Linguet +6 more
TL;DR: An improved version of GOES_H2, which has been combined with a radiative transfer parameterization (RTP) and the McClear clear-sky model (MC), is proposed, which gives better results of MBE and RMSE than the original GOES-H2 method.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modification of the SUNFLUX solar radiation scheme with a new aerosol parameterization and its validation using observation network data
TL;DR: In this article, a new aerosol parameterization scheme is developed for five aerosol species, which is further modified in the treatment of aerosols by using the CAM-chem system to calculate the fractions of aerosol optical depth.
Journal ArticleDOI
Performance evaluation and experimental validation of different empirical models for predicting photovoltaic output power
Rachid Herbazi,Zainab Ben Seddik,Khalid Amechnoue,Ahmed Khouya,Ibrahim Hadj Baraka,Mustapha Diani,A. Chahboun +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors evaluated eighteen empirical models for predicting the photovoltaic output power using meteorological data as input, and selected the most suitable model to use taking into account climatic changes such as sunny, cloudy and rainy days.
Journal ArticleDOI
Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Intelligent Technology
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used some different combination inputs of the neural network to develop the solar irradiance forecasting with 24 hours ahead, and evaluated their forecasting performances and some comparison results in Taichung solar farm are given.
References
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BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Book
Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed exposition of statistical intervals and emphasizes applications in industry is presented. But the discussion differentiates at an elementary level among different kinds of statistical interval and gives instruction with numerous examples and simple math on how to construct such intervals from sample data, including confidence intervals to contain a population percentile, confidence intervals on probability of meeting specified threshold value and prediction intervals to include observation in a future sample.
Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces.