Journal ArticleDOI
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems
TLDR
An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.Abstract:
The contribution of power production by photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Focus of the paper is the description and evaluation of the approach of irradiance forecasting, which is the basis for PV power prediction. One day-ahead irradiance forecasts for single stations in Germany show a rRMSE of 36%. For regional forecasts, forecast accuracy is increasing in dependency on the size of the region. For the complete area of Germany, the rRMSE amounts to 13%. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification of the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective application. We present and evaluate an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts. The accuracy of PV power prediction is investigated in a case study.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Computationally Efficient Modeling of DC-DC Converters for PV Applications
TL;DR: A computationally efficient approach for the simulation of a DC-DC converter connected to a photovoltaic device is proposed, based on a combination of a highly efficient formulation of the one-diode model for photvoltaic devices and a state-space formulations of the converter as well as an accurate steady-state detection methodology.
Journal ArticleDOI
Model output statistics cascade to improve day ahead solar irradiance forecast
Marco Pierro,Francesco Bucci,Cristina Cornaro,Enrico Maggioni,Alessandro Perotto,Mauro Pravettoni,Francesco Spada +6 more
TL;DR: A new hybrid Model Output Statistics (MOS), named MOS cascade, is developed to refine the day-ahead forecast of the global horizontal irradiance provided by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, showing that a considerable reduction in error was achieved.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Short Term Wind Speed Predictions by Using the Grey Prediction Model Based Forecast Method
TL;DR: The accurate predictions of wind speed by using the GM(1,1) Grey forecasting method can serve as the basis for introducing the wind power as an efficient source of alternative energies.
Proceedings ArticleDOI
Photovoltaic power forecasting based on artificial neural network and meteorological data
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a novel photovoltaic power forecasting model considering aerosol index data as an additional input, which is able to improve the prediction accuracy of conventional methods using artificial neural network.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quantile Regression Post-Processing of Weather Forecast for Short-Term Solar Power Probabilistic Forecasting
Luca Massidda,Marino Marrocu +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a new approach for PF based on quantile regression using the gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRT) method fed by numerical weather forecasts of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS).
References
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BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Book
Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed exposition of statistical intervals and emphasizes applications in industry is presented. But the discussion differentiates at an elementary level among different kinds of statistical interval and gives instruction with numerous examples and simple math on how to construct such intervals from sample data, including confidence intervals to contain a population percentile, confidence intervals on probability of meeting specified threshold value and prediction intervals to include observation in a future sample.
Evaluation of models to predict insolation on tilted surfaces
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical study was performed to evaluate the validity of various insolation models which employ either an isotropic or an anisotropic distribution approximation for sky light when predicting insolation on tilted surfaces.